Brentford 0-0 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brentford at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brentford vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 33 as Brentford welcome Fulham to Brentford Community Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Brentford have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Brentford Community Stadium, Brentford have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fulham stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fulham away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Brentford 1.40 PPG, Fulham 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Brentford, 4 for Fulham and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–3 with Fulham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Brentford in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Fulham in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brentford 60% and Fulham 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brentford 56% | Fulham 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brentford 1.67 xG and Fulham 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brentford attack 1.116 / defence 1.088 | Fulham attack 0.856 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.263. Data: 70 Brentford games / 70 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brentford 47% | Draw 28% | Fulham 25%. Fair-value odds: Brentford 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Fulham 4.00. Brentford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brentford at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brentford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Brentford 60% | Fulham 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brentford vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Brentford Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brentford 47% | Draw 28% | Fulham 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Brentford 1.67 / Fulham 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Brentford attack 1.116 / def 1.088 | Fulham attack 0.856 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Brentford (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Brentford xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Fulham xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brentford vs Fulham kick off?
Brentford vs Fulham kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Brentford Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Brentford vs Fulham?
Brentford 0 - 0 Fulham.
Where is Brentford vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Brentford Community Stadium.
What competition is Brentford vs Fulham part of?
Brentford vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Brentford vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Brentford a 47% chance of winning, Fulham a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Brentford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brentford vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Brentford and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Brentford vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brentford and Fulham?
Record (7 meetings): Brentford 2W | Draws 1 | Fulham 4W.
What form are Brentford and Fulham in?
Brentford (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Fulham (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Brentford's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Fulham's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Brentford's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brentford Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.58
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Brentford xG
Total xG
2.85
1.18
Fulham xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
5%
21.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brentford vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Brentford and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Brentford and 1.18 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Brentford vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brentford come into this having played 70 games, going 29W 16D 25L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.40 PPG from 70 outings (28W 14D 28L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brentford on 1.47 PPG, Fulham on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Brentford's home form reads 16W 10D 9L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.66 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 1.23 points per game from 35 outings (12W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brentford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Brentford are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.39 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brentford have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Fulham in 66%.
Last 70 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brentford
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brentford and Fulham in coming into this match?
Brentford have gone 29W 16D 25L in their last 70 games (1.47 PPG), while Fulham have gone 28W 14D 28L in their last 70 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brentford at home or Fulham away?
Brentford's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brentford at home: 1.66 PPG; Fulham away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brentford and Fulham runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Brentford won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brentford's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Brentford
2
Draws
4
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brentford and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, Brentford have won 2, Fulham have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brentford and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Brentford 0-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Brentford and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brentford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Brentford at 69%, Fulham at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Brentford) and 51% (Fulham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brentford have failed to score in 26% of games; Fulham in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brentford home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brentford play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Brentford's games and 63% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brentford vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Brentford's matches and 51% of Fulham's.
Do Brentford and Fulham tend to score early?
Brentford have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Fulham in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Brentford's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brentford and Fulham finished level at 0-0 at Brentford Community Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brentford 1.67 xG and Fulham 1.18 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Brentford fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Fulham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brentford attack 1.12 / defence 1.09 against Fulham attack 0.86 / defence 1.08, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brentford 47% | Draw 28% | Fulham 25%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brentford 56%, Fulham 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brentford's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fulham's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brentford 1.47 PPG, Fulham 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Brentford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.