Brentford 1-1 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brentford at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Brentford face Everton.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Everton make the trip to Gtech Community Stadium to face Brentford in Premier League (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Wednesday 26 February 2025 at 19:30 UK time.
Form
Brentford (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Brentford's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Everton's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Everton's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Brentford against 1.50 for Everton. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Brentford, 3 for Everton and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2024, ended Brentford 0–0 Everton — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Brentford goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Everton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brentford 66% versus Everton 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brentford 67% | Everton 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brentford 1.40 xG and Everton 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brentford attack 1.095 / defence 1.126 | Everton attack 0.701 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.551. Everton's attack rating of 0.701 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.22. Data: built from Brentford's last 64 games and Everton's last 64.
Result probabilities: Brentford 41% | Draw 26% | Everton 33%. Fair-value odds: Brentford 2.43 | Draw 3.83 | Everton 3.05. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brentford as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brentford if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though recent form (Brentford's last 10 home games and Everton's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Brentford 70% (last 10 home games) | Everton 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brentford vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, matchday 27 | Venue: Gtech Community Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 February 2025 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brentford 41% | Draw 26% | Everton 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Brentford 1.40 / Everton 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Brentford attack 1.095 / def 1.126 | Everton attack 0.701 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.551 • Poisson stance: Brentford (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Brentford xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Everton xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Brentford vs Everton FAQs
What time does Brentford vs Everton kick off?
Brentford vs Everton kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Wednesday 26 February 2025 at Gtech Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Brentford vs Everton?
Brentford 1 - 1 Everton.
Where is Brentford vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Gtech Community Stadium.
What competition is Brentford vs Everton part of?
Brentford vs Everton is a Premier League fixture (matchday 27) (England).
Who is favourite to win Brentford vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Brentford a 41% chance of winning, Everton a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Brentford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brentford vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Brentford and Everton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Brentford vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Brentford's attack at 1.09x the league average against Everton's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Everton's attack (0.70x) against Brentford's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from Brentford's last 64 games and Everton's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brentford Win
41%
2.43
26%
3.83
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Brentford xG
Total xG
2.63
1.22
Everton xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
8%
12.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.4 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Brentford vs Everton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Brentford vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Brentford and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Brentford and 1.22 for Everton, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Brentford vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Brentford have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 21W 13D 30L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Everton's form line: 20W 19D 25L from 64 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Brentford against 1.23 for Everton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Brentford have posted 1.42 PPG from their last 31 home games (12W 8D 11L).
On the road, Everton have gone 8W 9D 14L from their last 31 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Brentford are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.08 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brentford have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brentford
Blended
Everton
Blended
Brentford (Home) vs Everton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Brentford
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Brentford vs Everton Form FAQs
What form are Brentford and Everton in coming into this match?
Brentford have gone 21W 13D 30L in their last 64 games (1.19 PPG), while Everton have gone 20W 19D 25L in their last 64 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brentford at home or Everton away?
Brentford's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brentford at home: 1.42 PPG; Everton away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Brentford or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brentford have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Everton in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Brentford and Everton, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brentford have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Everton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Brentford
4
Draws
3
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Brentford vs Everton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Brentford and Everton?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Brentford have won 3, Everton have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Brentford and Everton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Brentford 2-2 Everton.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brentford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brentford 74%, Everton 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Brentford) and 42% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Everton in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brentford home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Brentford vs Everton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Brentford and Everton matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Brentford's games and 42% of Everton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Brentford and Everton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Brentford's recent games and 42% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brentford and Everton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Brentford's recent matches and 64% of Everton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brentford and Everton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brentford and Everton finished level at 1-1 at Gtech Community Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brentford 1.40 xG and Everton 1.22 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brentford attack 1.09 / defence 1.13 against Everton attack 0.70 / defence 0.85, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brentford 41% | Draw 26% | Everton 33%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brentford 67%, Everton 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brentford's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Everton's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brentford 1.19 PPG, Everton 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Brentford (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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