Bournemouth 2-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bournemouth vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Fulham travel to Vitality Stadium to take on Bournemouth. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 April 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bournemouth stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Vitality Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Fulham — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fulham are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bournemouth, 0 for Fulham and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Fulham in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 42% versus Fulham 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 49% | Fulham 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.04 xG and Fulham 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 0.753 / defence 1.225 | Fulham attack 1.003 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.120. Bournemouth's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Bournemouth games / 27 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 28% | Draw 27% | Fulham 44%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Fulham 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Bournemouth 50% | Fulham 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 28% | Draw 27% | Fulham 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Bournemouth 1.04 / Fulham 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 0.753 / def 1.225 | Fulham attack 1.003 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Fulham (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Fulham xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Fulham kick off?
Bournemouth vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Bournemouth 2 - 1 Fulham.
Where is Bournemouth vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Fulham part of?
Bournemouth vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 28% chance of winning, Fulham a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bournemouth and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Fulham?
Record (3 meetings): Bournemouth 0W | Draws 3 | Fulham 0W.
What form are Bournemouth and Fulham in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Fulham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bournemouth's attack rating (0.75) and Fulham's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
28%
3.51
27%
3.70
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.42
1.38
Fulham xG
3.51
28%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
7%
13.93
16%
6.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.38 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bournemouth come into this having played 73 games, going 31W 19D 23L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.77 PPG from 73 outings (38W 15D 20L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bournemouth on 1.53 PPG, Fulham on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bournemouth's home form reads 17W 11D 8L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 1.69 points per game from 36 outings (18W 7D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Bournemouth are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.97 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Fulham in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 31W 19D 23L in their last 73 games (1.53 PPG), while Fulham have gone 38W 15D 20L in their last 73 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Fulham away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.72 PPG; Fulham away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Bournemouth or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Fulham in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bournemouth and Fulham runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bournemouth have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2023, when Bournemouth won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bournemouth's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bournemouth
4
Draws
1
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Fulham?
From 10 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 5, Fulham have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Fulham 0-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Fulham?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 50%, Fulham 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Bournemouth) and 53% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Bournemouth keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Fulham in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 53% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bournemouth vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Bournemouth's recent games and 53% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bournemouth and Fulham tend to score early?
Bournemouth have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Fulham in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bournemouth defy the odds to beat Fulham 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Fulham 2-1 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.04 xG and Fulham 1.38 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Bournemouth beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.75 / defence 1.23 against Fulham attack 1.00 / defence 0.93, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 28% | Draw 27% | Fulham 44%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Bournemouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 49%, Fulham 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Fulham's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.53 PPG, Fulham 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.