Arsenal vs Fulham – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Arsenal (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Arsenal face Fulham.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Emirates Stadium plays host to Arsenal versus Fulham in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 20 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Arsenal have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Arsenal have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Emirates Stadium, Arsenal have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Emirates Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fulham's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Fulham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fulham's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Arsenal's 2.40 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Fulham's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Arsenal have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Fulham in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Across 8 previous meetings, Arsenal are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 3–0 with Arsenal winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Arsenal and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Arsenal — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Fulham — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arsenal 45% versus Fulham 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arsenal 52% | Fulham 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal 1.71 xG and Fulham 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal attack 1.146 / defence 0.782 | Fulham attack 0.786 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.593 / away 1.210. Arsenal's defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Arsenal games / 40 Fulham games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Arsenal 61% | Draw 24% | Fulham 16%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Fulham 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Arsenal (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arsenal are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arsenal 30% | Fulham 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arsenal vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Emirates Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arsenal 61% | Draw 24% | Fulham 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 43% | xG Arsenal 1.71 / Fulham 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Arsenal attack 1.146 / def 0.782 | Fulham attack 0.786 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.593 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Arsenal xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Fulham xG
43%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arsenal vs Fulham kick off?
Arsenal vs Fulham is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Emirates Stadium.
Where is Arsenal vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Emirates Stadium.
What competition is Arsenal vs Fulham part of?
Arsenal vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Arsenal vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Arsenal a 61% chance of winning, Fulham a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Arsenal and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Arsenal vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Fulham?
Record (8 meetings): Arsenal 5W | Draws 2 | Fulham 1W.
What form are Arsenal and Fulham in?
Arsenal (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Fulham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Arsenal's attack at 1.15x the league average against Fulham's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (0.79x) against Arsenal's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.6%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
61%
1.65
24%
4.25
16%
6.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Arsenal xG
Total xG
2.46
0.74
Fulham xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
6.28
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
3%
34.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 10.9 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arsenal vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Arsenal and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.74 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Arsenal vs Fulham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, Arsenal have picked up 2.28 PPG on a 28W 7D 5L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Arsenal, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fulham's form line: 15W 7D 18L from 40 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Arsenal are the form team by 0.98 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fulham.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Arsenal have posted 2.50 PPG from 20 outings (16W 2D 2L).
On the road, Fulham have gone 4W 5D 11L from 20 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fulham's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arsenal are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.23 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arsenal
Early Season
Fulham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arsenal and Fulham in coming into this match?
Arsenal have gone 28W 7D 5L in their last 40 games (2.28 PPG), while Fulham have gone 15W 7D 18L in their last 40 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arsenal at home or Fulham away?
Arsenal's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arsenal at home: 2.50 PPG; Fulham away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Arsenal or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Fulham in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Arsenal go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arsenal won 0-3 on 12 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arsenal have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Arsenal
2
Draws
1
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, Arsenal have won 5, Fulham have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Arsenal and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Arsenal 3-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Arsenal and Fulham?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arsenal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arsenal 40%, Fulham 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Arsenal) and 45% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Fulham in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arsenal home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arsenal play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Arsenal's recent matches and 50% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arsenal vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Arsenal's recent games and 45% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arsenal and Fulham tend to score early?
Arsenal have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Fulham in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.