Arsenal 2-1 Everton – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Arsenal at 75% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arsenal vs Everton encounter.

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Match Analysis

Arsenal host Everton at Emirates Stadium in Premier League (matchday 38). Kick-off is Sunday 19 May 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Arsenal — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Arsenal at home: 8W 0D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Everton stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Everton away from home: 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On current form, Arsenal have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Arsenal have won 3, Everton 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2023, ended Arsenal 1–0 Everton — a Arsenal win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Arsenal trading profile (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Everton trading profile (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arsenal 48% versus Everton 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arsenal 65% | Everton 41%). Note also that Everton surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Arsenal recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 54% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal 2.34 xG and Everton 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal attack 1.284 / defence 0.658 | Everton attack 0.661 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.501. Arsenal carry an above-average attack rating of 1.284 — their 2.34 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Everton's attack rating of 0.661 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.65. Arsenal have a tight defence (rating 0.658), which is pulling Everton's projected output down. Data: built from Arsenal's last 75 games and Everton's last 75.

Result probabilities: Arsenal 75% | Draw 17% | Everton 8%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal 1.34 | Draw 5.84 | Everton 12.21. The model has a clear lean to Arsenal (75%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Arsenal as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Arsenal's last 10 home games and Everton's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Arsenal 30% (last 10 home games) | Everton 50% (last 10 away games).

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