Walsall 1-1 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Walsall at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Walsall vs Sutton Utd encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Walsall host Sutton Utd at Poundland Bescot Stadium in League Two (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 27 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Walsall have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Walsall have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sutton Utd stand at 1W 6D 3L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sutton Utd's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Walsall carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Walsall, 1 for Sutton Utd and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Walsall 0–4 Sutton Utd — a Sutton Utd win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Walsall trading profile (last 72 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sutton Utd trading profile (last 72 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Walsall 56% versus Sutton Utd 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Walsall 44% | Sutton Utd 46%). Note also that Sutton Utd surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Walsall recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Walsall 1.96 xG and Sutton Utd 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Walsall attack 0.950 / defence 0.728 | Sutton Utd attack 0.747 / defence 1.347. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.338. Sutton Utd's defence rating of 1.347 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Walsall's projected output up. Sutton Utd's attack rating of 0.747 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Walsall have a tight defence (rating 0.728), which is pulling Sutton Utd's projected output down. Data: built from Walsall's last 72 games and Sutton Utd's last 73.
Result probabilities: Walsall 66% | Draw 21% | Sutton Utd 13%. Fair-value odds: Walsall 1.51 | Draw 4.72 | Sutton Utd 7.86. The model has a clear lean to Walsall (66%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Walsall at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Walsall 40% (last 10 home games) | Sutton Utd 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Walsall vs Sutton Utd | Competition: League Two, matchday 30 | Venue: Poundland Bescot Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Walsall 66% | Draw 21% | Sutton Utd 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Walsall 1.96 / Sutton Utd 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Walsall attack 0.950 / def 0.728 | Sutton Utd attack 0.747 / def 1.347 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Walsall (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Walsall xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Sutton Utd xG
45%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Walsall vs Sutton Utd FAQs
What time does Walsall vs Sutton Utd kick off?
Walsall vs Sutton Utd kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Poundland Bescot Stadium.
What was the final score in Walsall vs Sutton Utd?
Walsall 1 - 1 Sutton Utd.
Where is Walsall vs Sutton Utd being played?
The match is being played at Poundland Bescot Stadium.
What competition is Walsall vs Sutton Utd part of?
Walsall vs Sutton Utd is a League Two fixture (matchday 30) (England).
Who is favourite to win Walsall vs Sutton Utd?
Our statistical model gives Walsall a 66% chance of winning, Sutton Utd a 13% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Walsall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Walsall vs Sutton Utd?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Walsall and Sutton Utd will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Walsall vs Sutton Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Walsall's attack rating (0.95) and Sutton Utd's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sutton Utd's attack versus Walsall's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Walsall's last 72 games and Sutton Utd's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 1-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Walsall Win
66%
1.51
21%
4.72
13%
7.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Walsall xG
Total xG
2.68
0.73
Sutton Utd xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
7.86
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
14%
7.08
Win to Nil
32%
3.13
2%
55.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 9.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Walsall vs Sutton Utd Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Walsall vs Sutton Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Walsall and Sutton Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Walsall and 0.73 for Sutton Utd, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Walsall vs Sutton Utd?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Walsall's recent record stands at 22W 25D 25L from 72 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Sutton Utd, meanwhile, have gone 19W 20D 33L across 72 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-L-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Walsall on 1.26 PPG, Sutton Utd on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Walsall have managed 15W 13D 7L from their last 35 home games — 1.66 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sutton Utd's away record stands at 5W 11D 19L across their last 35 away games, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Walsall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Walsall are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Sutton Utd are on 1.06 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Walsall
Blended
Sutton Utd
Blended
Walsall (Home) vs Sutton Utd (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Walsall
Blended
Sutton Utd
Blended
❓ Walsall vs Sutton Utd Form FAQs
What form are Walsall and Sutton Utd in coming into this match?
Walsall have gone 22W 25D 25L in their last 72 games (1.26 PPG), while Sutton Utd have gone 19W 20D 33L in their last 72 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Walsall at home or Sutton Utd away?
Walsall's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Walsall at home: 1.66 PPG; Sutton Utd away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Oct 2023, when Sutton Utd won Sutton Utd 4-0 Walsall.
Walsall's record when hosting Sutton Utd specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Walsall
3
Draws
1
Sutton Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Walsall vs Sutton Utd H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Sutton Utd?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Walsall have won 2, Sutton Utd have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Walsall and Sutton Utd last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 January 2024: Walsall 1-1 Sutton Utd.
Who has won more matches between Walsall and Sutton Utd?
Walsall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Walsall 51%, Sutton Utd 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Walsall) and 51% (Sutton Utd).
On the defensive side: Walsall keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Walsall have failed to score in 29% of games; Sutton Utd in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Walsall home games / Sutton Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Walsall vs Sutton Utd Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Walsall and Sutton Utd matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Walsall's recent matches and 54% of Sutton Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Walsall and Sutton Utd matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Walsall's recent games and 51% of Sutton Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Walsall and Sutton Utd matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Walsall's recent matches and 71% of Sutton Utd's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Walsall and Sutton Utd share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Walsall and Sutton Utd finished level at 1-1 at Poundland Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 1.96 xG and Sutton Utd 0.73 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Walsall fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 0.95 / defence 0.73 against Sutton Utd attack 0.75 / defence 1.35, drawn from 72/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Walsall 66% | Draw 21% | Sutton Utd 13%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 44%, Sutton Utd 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Walsall's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Sutton Utd's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Walsall 1.26 PPG, Sutton Utd 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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