Walsall 0-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Walsall at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Walsall vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crawley Town make the trip to Bescot Stadium to face Walsall in League Two, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Tuesday 27 January 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Walsall (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Walsall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Walsall at Bescot Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Crawley Town's overall League Two record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Walsall's favour (1.80 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Walsall 1W, Crawley Town 1W, 5D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 7 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Walsall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Walsall 52% versus Crawley Town 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Walsall 45% | Crawley Town 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Walsall 1.63 xG and Crawley Town 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Walsall attack 0.904 / defence 0.890 | Crawley Town attack 0.752 / defence 1.392. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.239. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.392 — this is suppressing Walsall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 72 Walsall games / 27 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Walsall 56% | Draw 25% | Crawley Town 19%. Fair-value odds: Walsall 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Crawley Town 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Walsall (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Walsall as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Walsall 60% | Crawley Town 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Walsall vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Bescot Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Walsall 56% | Draw 25% | Crawley Town 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 45% | xG Walsall 1.63 / Crawley Town 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Walsall attack 0.904 / def 0.890 | Crawley Town attack 0.752 / def 1.392 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Walsall (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Walsall xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Crawley Town xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Walsall vs Crawley Town kick off?
Walsall vs Crawley Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 27 January 2026 at Bescot Stadium.
What was the final score in Walsall vs Crawley Town?
Walsall 0 - 0 Crawley Town.
Where is Walsall vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Bescot Stadium.
What competition is Walsall vs Crawley Town part of?
Walsall vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Walsall vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Walsall a 56% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Walsall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Walsall vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Walsall and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Walsall vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Crawley Town?
Record (7 meetings): Walsall 1W | Draws 5 | Crawley Town 1W.
What form are Walsall and Crawley Town in?
Walsall (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Walsall's attack at 0.90x the league average against Crawley Town's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.75x) against Walsall's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 72/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Walsall Win
56%
1.78
25%
4.05
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Walsall xG
Total xG
2.46
0.83
Crawley Town xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
4%
26.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 11.6 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Walsall vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Walsall and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Walsall and 0.83 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Walsall vs Crawley Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 73 outings, Walsall have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 35W 19D 19L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Walsall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town's form line: 17W 17D 39L from 73 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Walsall are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crawley Town.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Walsall have posted 1.81 PPG from 36 outings (19W 8D 9L).
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 6W 6D 24L from 36 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Walsall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Walsall are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.19 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 73 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Walsall
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Walsall and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Walsall have gone 35W 19D 19L in their last 73 games (1.70 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 17W 17D 39L in their last 73 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Walsall at home or Crawley Town away?
Walsall's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Walsall at home: 1.81 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Walsall or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Walsall have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 5 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Walsall have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Walsall
6
Draws
1
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Crawley Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Walsall have won 1, Crawley Town have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Walsall and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when Walsall 0-0 Crawley Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Walsall 67%, Crawley Town 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Walsall and 67% for Crawley Town. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crawley Town in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Walsall home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Walsall play Crawley Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Walsall's games and 47% of Crawley Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Walsall vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Walsall's matches and 67% of Crawley Town's.
Do Walsall and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Walsall have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Walsall's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Walsall and Crawley Town finished level at 0-0 at Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 1.63 xG and Crawley Town 0.83 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Walsall fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Crawley Town landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 0.90 / defence 0.89 against Crawley Town attack 0.75 / defence 1.39, drawn from 72/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Walsall 56% | Draw 25% | Crawley Town 19%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 45%, Crawley Town 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Walsall's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Crawley Town's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Walsall arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Walsall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.