Stockport County 1-0 Rochdale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Rochdale fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 44 sees Rochdale travel to Edgeley Park to take on Stockport County. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 April 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stockport County — All Games: 4W 6D 0L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Stockport County's home record at Edgeley Park: 5W 5D 0L from 10 League Two appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park.
Across all League Two games this season, Rochdale have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in League Two this season, Rochdale have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Stockport County have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Stockport County, 0 for Rochdale and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2023, ended 2–1 with Stockport County winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Stockport County trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Rochdale trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 46% versus Rochdale 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 40% | Rochdale 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.39 xG and Rochdale 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.083 / defence 0.780 | Rochdale attack 0.808 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.033. Stockport County's defence rating of 0.780 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Stockport County games / 89 Rochdale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 53% | Draw 31% | Rochdale 16%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.89 | Draw 3.23 | Rochdale 6.25. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 40% | Rochdale 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Rochdale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 53% | Draw 31% | Rochdale 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 38% | xG Stockport County 1.39 / Rochdale 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.083 / def 0.780 | Rochdale attack 0.808 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Rochdale xG
38%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Rochdale kick off?
Stockport County vs Rochdale kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Rochdale?
Stockport County 1 - 0 Rochdale.
Where is Stockport County vs Rochdale being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Rochdale part of?
Stockport County vs Rochdale is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Rochdale?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 53% chance of winning, Rochdale a 16% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Rochdale?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Stockport County and Rochdale will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Rochdale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Rochdale?
Record (1 meetings): Stockport County 1W | Draws 0 | Rochdale 0W.
What form are Stockport County and Rochdale in?
Stockport County (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Rochdale (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stockport County's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Rochdale's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Rochdale's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/89 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
53%
1.88
31%
3.24
16%
6.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.04
0.65
Rochdale xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
6.31
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
28%
3.60
4%
25.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 11.7 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Rochdale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Rochdale expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.65 for Rochdale, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Rochdale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Stockport County have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 20W 12D 11L record — D-W-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Rochdale's form line: 8W 10D 25L from 43 games, 0.79 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Stockport County are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rochdale.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stockport County have posted 1.81 PPG from 21 outings (10W 8D 3L).
On the road, Rochdale have gone 4W 5D 12L from 21 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stockport County are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Rochdale are on 0.95 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Current Season
Rochdale
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Rochdale in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 20W 12D 11L in their last 43 games (1.67 PPG), while Rochdale have gone 8W 10D 25L in their last 43 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Rochdale away?
Stockport County's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 1.81 PPG; Rochdale away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Rochdale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Rochdale in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stockport County and Rochdale runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Stockport County
0
Draws
0
Rochdale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Rochdale?
From 2 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 2, Rochdale have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Rochdale last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Stockport County 1-0 Rochdale.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Rochdale?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Rochdale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 43%, Rochdale 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Stockport County and 33% for Rochdale.
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Rochdale in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Rochdale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Rochdale?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Stockport County's recent matches and 38% of Rochdale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Rochdale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Stockport County's recent games and 33% of Rochdale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Rochdale tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rochdale in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stockport County edge out Rochdale 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Rochdale 1-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 44, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.39 xG and Rochdale 0.65 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.08 / defence 0.78 against Rochdale attack 0.81 / defence 1.06, drawn from 43/89 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 53% | Draw 31% | Rochdale 16%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 40%, Rochdale 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rochdale's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.