Stockport County 0-2 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stockport County at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Mansfield Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mansfield Town make the trip to Edgeley Park to face Stockport County in League Two, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Monday 1 January 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Stockport County (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stockport County at Edgeley Park this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Stockport County are significantly better at Edgeley Park than their overall form suggests.
Mansfield Town's overall League Two record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mansfield Town's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stockport County lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 2–3 with Mansfield Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stockport County — key trading statistics (69 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Mansfield Town — key trading statistics (69 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 48% versus Mansfield Town 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 42% | Mansfield Town 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.62 xG and Mansfield Town 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.362 / defence 0.652 | Mansfield Town attack 1.316 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.297. Stockport County carry an above-average attack strength of 1.362 — their λ of 1.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Mansfield Town's defence strength of 0.784 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Mansfield Town have an above-average attack strength of 1.316 — the away xG of 1.11 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Stockport County's defence rating of 0.652 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 71 Stockport County games / 69 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 49% | Draw 26% | Mansfield Town 26%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Mansfield Town 3.85. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 30% | Mansfield Town 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Monday 1 Jan 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 49% | Draw 26% | Mansfield Town 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Stockport County 1.62 / Mansfield Town 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.362 / def 0.652 | Mansfield Town attack 1.316 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Mansfield Town xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Stockport County vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 1 January 2024 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Mansfield Town?
Stockport County 0 - 2 Mansfield Town.
Where is Stockport County vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Mansfield Town part of?
Stockport County vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 49% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Stockport County and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Mansfield Town?
Record (3 meetings): Stockport County 0W | Draws 1 | Mansfield Town 2W.
What form are Stockport County and Mansfield Town in?
Stockport County (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Mansfield Town (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Stockport County's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Mansfield Town's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Mansfield Town's attack (1.32x) against Stockport County's defence (0.65x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 71/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
49%
2.06
26%
3.87
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.74
1.11
Mansfield Town xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
5%
19.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.11 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 69 outings, Stockport County have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 37W 20D 12L record — D-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mansfield Town's form line: 33W 22D 14L from 69 games, 1.75 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.90 PPG for Stockport County against 1.75 for Mansfield Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Stockport County have posted 2.06 PPG from 35 outings (20W 12D 3L).
On the road, Mansfield Town have gone 18W 9D 8L from 35 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Stockport County are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.65 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town in 61%.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Blended
Mansfield Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 37W 20D 12L in their last 69 games (1.90 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 33W 22D 14L in their last 69 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Mansfield Town away?
Stockport County's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.06 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Mansfield Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Mansfield Town in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stockport County have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mansfield Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Stockport County
2
Draws
5
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Mansfield Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 1, Mansfield Town have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Stockport County 0-1 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 40%, Mansfield Town 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Stockport County) and 54% (Mansfield Town).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Mansfield Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Stockport County's recent matches and 63% of Mansfield Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Stockport County's recent games and 54% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mansfield Town cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Stockport County.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town beat Stockport County 0-2 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 26, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.62 xG and Mansfield Town 1.11 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Stockport County fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Mansfield Town outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.36 / defence 0.65 against Mansfield Town attack 1.32 / defence 0.78, drawn from 71/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 49% | Draw 26% | Mansfield Town 26%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Mansfield Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 42%, Mansfield Town 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.90 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mansfield Town win broke the near-deadlock. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.