Stevenage 1-3 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Salford City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Salford City make the trip to The Lamex Stadium to face Stevenage in League Two, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 March 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stevenage have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Stevenage at The Lamex Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Lamex Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Stevenage are significantly better at The Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Salford City (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Salford City's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Salford City are 0.50 PPG clear of Stevenage in recent League Two fixtures (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stevenage lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Salford City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (82 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Salford City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (82 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 43% versus Salford City 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 43% | Salford City 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.98 xG and Salford City 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 1.324 / defence 0.861 | Salford City attack 1.454 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.064. Stevenage carry an above-average attack strength of 1.324 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Salford City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Stevenage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Salford City have an above-average attack strength of 1.454 — the away xG of 1.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 82 Stevenage games / 83 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 52% | Draw 23% | Salford City 25%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Salford City 4.00. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Salford City (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral: Stevenage 30% | Salford City 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Mar 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 52% | Draw 23% | Salford City 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Stevenage 1.98 / Salford City 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 1.324 / def 0.861 | Salford City attack 1.454 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Salford City xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Salford City kick off?
Stevenage vs Salford City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 March 2023 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Salford City?
Stevenage 1 - 3 Salford City.
Where is Stevenage vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Salford City part of?
Stevenage vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 52% chance of winning, Salford City a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Stevenage and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Salford City?
Record (3 meetings): Stevenage 1W | Draws 0 | Salford City 2W.
What form are Stevenage and Salford City in?
Stevenage (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Salford City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Stevenage's attack rating (1.32) and Salford City's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Salford City's attack (1.45x) against Stevenage's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 82/83 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
52%
1.93
23%
4.30
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Stevenage xG
Total xG
3.31
1.33
Salford City xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
14%
7.25
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
3%
29.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.33 for Salford City, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stevenage's recent record stands at 30W 24D 28L from 82 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Salford City, meanwhile, have gone 36W 20D 26L across 82 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Stevenage against 1.56 for Salford City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 23W 7D 11L from 41 games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Salford City's away record stands at 17W 7D 17L across 41 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stevenage are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.41 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 82 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Current Season
Salford City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Salford City in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 30W 24D 28L in their last 82 games (1.39 PPG), while Salford City have gone 36W 20D 26L in their last 82 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Salford City away?
Stevenage's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.85 PPG; Salford City away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Salford City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Salford City in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Salford City have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Salford City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Stevenage
0
Draws
3
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Salford City?
From 4 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 1, Salford City have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 25 March 2023, when Stevenage 1-3 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Salford City?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 39%, Salford City 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Stevenage) and 44% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Salford City in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Salford City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Stevenage's recent matches and 51% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Stevenage's recent games and 44% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Salford City tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Salford City in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Salford City cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Stevenage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Stevenage 1-3 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.98 xG and Salford City 1.33 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Stevenage fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Salford City outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 1.32 / defence 0.86 against Salford City attack 1.45 / defence 1.29, drawn from 82/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 52% | Draw 23% | Salford City 25%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Salford City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 43%, Salford City 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Salford City's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.39 PPG, Salford City 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.