Stevenage 1-0 Rochdale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Rochdale encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stevenage host Rochdale at The Lamex Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 16 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Stevenage — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Stevenage have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stevenage have posted 5W 0D 5L at The Lamex Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Lamex Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rochdale stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Rochdale have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rochdale's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Stevenage are in the better shape of the two on current League Two data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Stevenage's 30% rate and Rochdale's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Stevenage have won 1, Rochdale 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Stevenage winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Rochdale in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 45% versus Rochdale 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 45% | Rochdale 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.46 xG and Rochdale 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 1.084 / defence 1.114 | Rochdale attack 0.840 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 0.927. Data: 49 Stevenage games / 49 Rochdale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 51% | Draw 27% | Rochdale 22%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Rochdale 4.55. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 30% | Rochdale 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Rochdale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 51% | Draw 27% | Rochdale 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Stevenage 1.46 / Rochdale 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 1.084 / def 1.114 | Rochdale attack 0.840 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.316 / away 0.927 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Rochdale xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Rochdale kick off?
Stevenage vs Rochdale kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 16 August 2022 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Rochdale?
Stevenage 1 - 0 Rochdale.
Where is Stevenage vs Rochdale being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Rochdale part of?
Stevenage vs Rochdale is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Rochdale?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 51% chance of winning, Rochdale a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Rochdale?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Stevenage and Rochdale will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Rochdale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Rochdale?
Record (2 meetings): Stevenage 1W | Draws 1 | Rochdale 0W.
What form are Stevenage and Rochdale in?
Stevenage (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Rochdale (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stevenage's attack rating (1.08) and Rochdale's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rochdale's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.76
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.33
0.87
Rochdale xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
5%
19.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.3 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Rochdale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Rochdale expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.87 for Rochdale, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Rochdale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stevenage come into this having played 49 games, going 13W 15D 21L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Rochdale sit at 1.08 PPG from 49 outings (12W 17D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Rochdale, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.10 PPG, Rochdale on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Stevenage's home form reads 10W 6D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Rochdale have taken 0.88 points per game from 24 outings (5W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stevenage are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Rochdale are on 1.06 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 49 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Early Season
Rochdale
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Rochdale in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 13W 15D 21L in their last 49 games (1.10 PPG), while Rochdale have gone 12W 17D 20L in their last 49 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Rochdale away?
Stevenage's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.50 PPG; Rochdale away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Stevenage's record when hosting Rochdale specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stevenage
1
Draws
1
Rochdale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Rochdale?
From 4 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 2, Rochdale have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Rochdale last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Rochdale 2-0 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Rochdale?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Rochdale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 46%, Rochdale 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Stevenage) and 46% (Rochdale).
On the defensive side: Stevenage have failed to score in 29% of games; Rochdale in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Rochdale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Rochdale?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Stevenage's recent matches and 50% of Rochdale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Rochdale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Stevenage's recent games and 46% of Rochdale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Rochdale tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Rochdale in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Rochdale 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Rochdale 1-0 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.46 xG and Rochdale 0.87 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rochdale landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 1.08 / defence 1.11 against Rochdale attack 0.84 / defence 1.02, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 51% | Draw 27% | Rochdale 22%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 45%, Rochdale 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Rochdale's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.10 PPG, Rochdale 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Rochdale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.