Salford City 0-2 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Salford City at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salford City vs Stockport County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stockport County make the trip to The Peninsula Stadium to face Salford City in League Two, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Salford City's overall League Two record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salford City at The Peninsula Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Stockport County (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 League Two outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stockport County have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Salford City. A 0.80 PPG lead over Stockport County (1.70 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Salford City — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Stockport County — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 38% versus Stockport County 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 38% | Stockport County 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.47 xG and Stockport County 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 0.999 / defence 0.909 | Stockport County attack 0.979 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.025. Stockport County bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Salford City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Salford City games / 13 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 50% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 23%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Stockport County 4.35. Salford City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Salford City at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Salford City if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Salford City 40% | Stockport County 83% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 50% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Salford City 1.47 / Stockport County 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 0.999 / def 0.909 | Stockport County attack 0.979 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Salford City (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Stockport County xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Stockport County kick off?
Salford City vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Stockport County?
Salford City 0 - 2 Stockport County.
Where is Salford City vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Stockport County part of?
Salford City vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 50% chance of winning, Stockport County a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Salford City and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Stockport County?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Salford City and Stockport County in?
Salford City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Stockport County (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Salford City's attack at 1.00x the league average against Stockport County's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stockport County's attack (0.98x) against Salford City's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 59/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
50%
2.00
26%
3.78
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.38
0.91
Stockport County xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
5%
18.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Salford City and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Salford City and 0.91 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Salford City come into this having played 13 games, going 7W 3D 3L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stockport County sit at 0.92 PPG from 13 outings (3W 3D 7L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Salford City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Stockport County — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Salford City's home form reads 2W 2D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.85 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Stockport County have taken 0.50 points per game from 6 outings (1W 0D 5L). That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stockport County's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Salford City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Salford City are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.08 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stockport County in 69%.
Defensively: Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Blended
Stockport County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 7W 3D 3L in their last 13 games (1.85 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Stockport County away?
Salford City's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.33 PPG; Stockport County away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Salford City or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Stockport County in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Salford City have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stockport County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Salford City
3
Draws
2
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Stockport County?
From 6 meetings on record, Salford City have won 1, Stockport County have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2024, when Salford City 2-2 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 33%, Stockport County 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Salford City) and 83% (Stockport County). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Salford City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Salford City have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Stockport County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Salford City's games and 83% of Stockport County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Salford City vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Salford City's matches and 83% of Stockport County's.
Do Salford City and Stockport County tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Salford City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Salford City 0-2 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.47 xG and Stockport County 0.91 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Salford City fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Stockport County outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.00 / defence 0.91 against Stockport County attack 0.98 / defence 1.21, drawn from 59/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 50% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 23%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Stockport County win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 38%, Stockport County 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Stockport County's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Stockport County winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.