Salford City 1-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salford City at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salford City vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Peninsula Stadium plays host to Salford City versus Stevenage in League Two, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 27 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Salford City's overall League Two record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Salford City have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Salford City at The Peninsula Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Salford City are significantly better at The Peninsula Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Stevenage have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Stevenage have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stevenage away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Stevenage arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Salford City have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Stevenage in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Salford City, 1 for Stevenage and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 2–4 with Stevenage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Salford City half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Stevenage half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 49% versus Stevenage 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 43% | Stevenage 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.55 xG and Stevenage 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 1.246 / defence 0.854 | Stevenage attack 1.069 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 0.974. Data: 51 Salford City games / 51 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 53% | Draw 26% | Stevenage 22%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Stevenage 4.55. Salford City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Salford City at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Stevenage (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Salford City if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Salford City 60% | Stevenage 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Stevenage | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 53% | Draw 26% | Stevenage 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Salford City 1.55 / Stevenage 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 1.246 / def 0.854 | Stevenage attack 1.069 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.340 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: Salford City (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Stevenage xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Stevenage kick off?
Salford City vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Stevenage?
Salford City 1 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Salford City vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Stevenage part of?
Salford City vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 53% chance of winning, Stevenage a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Salford City and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Stevenage?
Record (2 meetings): Salford City 1W | Draws 0 | Stevenage 1W.
What form are Salford City and Stevenage in?
Salford City (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Stevenage (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Salford City's attack at 1.25x the league average against Stevenage's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (1.07x) against Salford City's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
53%
1.89
26%
3.91
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.44
0.89
Stevenage xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
5%
21.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Salford City and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Salford City and 0.89 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Salford City come into this having played 51 games, going 22W 14D 15L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Salford City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Stevenage sit at 1.18 PPG from 51 outings (15W 15D 21L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Salford City against 1.18 for Stevenage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Salford City's home form reads 12W 9D 4L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Stevenage have taken 0.72 points per game from 25 outings (3W 9D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Salford City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Salford City are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.04 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Early Season
Stevenage
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 22W 14D 15L in their last 51 games (1.57 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 15W 15D 21L in their last 51 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Stevenage away?
Salford City's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.80 PPG; Stevenage away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Salford City or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Stevenage in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Salford City go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Salford City have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Salford City
0
Draws
1
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Stevenage?
From 4 meetings on record, Salford City have won 3, Stevenage have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 25 March 2023, when Stevenage 1-3 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Stevenage?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 48%, Stevenage 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Salford City) and 44% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Salford City keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Stevenage in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Salford City's recent matches and 44% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salford City vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Salford City's recent games and 44% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Stevenage tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Salford City edge out Stevenage 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Stevenage 1-0 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.55 xG and Stevenage 0.89 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stevenage landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.25 / defence 0.85 against Stevenage attack 1.07 / defence 0.93, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 53% | Draw 26% | Stevenage 22%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 43%, Stevenage 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stevenage's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.57 PPG, Stevenage 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.