Salford City 3-0 Notts County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salford City at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salford City vs Notts County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Peninsula Stadium plays host to Salford City versus Notts County in League Two, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 14 December 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Salford City have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Peninsula Stadium, Salford City have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Notts County (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Notts County away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Salford City against 1.30 for Notts County. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Salford City 1W, Notts County 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Mar 2024, ended 2–1 with Salford City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Salford City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Notts County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Salford City 62% and Notts County 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 56% | Notts County 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.31 xG and Notts County 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 0.933 / defence 0.912 | Notts County attack 1.043 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.251. Data: 64 Salford City games / 64 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 39% | Draw 28% | Notts County 33%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Notts County 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Salford City at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Salford City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Salford City 40% | Notts County 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Notts County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 39% | Draw 28% | Notts County 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Salford City 1.31 / Notts County 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 0.933 / def 0.912 | Notts County attack 1.043 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Salford City (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Notts County xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Notts County kick off?
Salford City vs Notts County kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Notts County?
Salford City 3 - 0 Notts County.
Where is Salford City vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Notts County part of?
Salford City vs Notts County is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 39% chance of winning, Notts County a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Salford City and Notts County will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Notts County?
Record (2 meetings): Salford City 1W | Draws 0 | Notts County 1W.
What form are Salford City and Notts County in?
Salford City (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Notts County (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Salford City's attack rating (0.93) and Notts County's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Notts County's attack (1.04x) against Salford City's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
39%
2.58
28%
3.53
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.50
1.19
Notts County xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
9%
11.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Salford City and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Salford City and 1.19 for Notts County, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Salford City come into this having played 64 games, going 19W 18D 27L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Notts County sit at 1.39 PPG from 64 outings (25W 14D 25L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Notts County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Salford City against 1.39 for Notts County. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Salford City's home form reads 10W 8D 14L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Notts County have taken 1.16 points per game from 32 outings (9W 10D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Salford City are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.78 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Salford City have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Notts County in 64%.
Last 64 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Blended
Notts County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Notts County in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 19W 18D 27L in their last 64 games (1.17 PPG), while Notts County have gone 25W 14D 25L in their last 64 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Notts County away?
Salford City's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.19 PPG; Notts County away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 25 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Salford City won 3-0 on 14 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Salford City have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Notts County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Salford City
0
Draws
2
Notts County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Notts County?
From 7 meetings on record, Salford City have won 5, Notts County have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Notts County last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Notts County 3-0 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Notts County?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Salford City, 69% for Notts County — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Salford City and 56% for Notts County. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Notts County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Salford City's games and 69% of Notts County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Salford City vs Notts County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Salford City's matches and 56% of Notts County's.
Do Salford City and Notts County tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Notts County in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Salford City run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Notts County.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Notts County 3-0 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.31 xG and Notts County 1.19 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Salford City beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Notts County landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.93 / defence 0.91 against Notts County attack 1.04 / defence 1.10, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 39% | Draw 28% | Notts County 33%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 56%, Notts County 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Notts County's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.17 PPG, Notts County 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.