Salford City 1-3 Crewe – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Salford City (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Salford City face Crewe.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 1 as Salford City welcome Crewe to Peninsula Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 August 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Salford City — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Salford City haven't played a League Two game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Salford City's home record at Peninsula Stadium: 2W 5D 3L from 10 League Two appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Peninsula Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crewe stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Crewe haven't played a League Two game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Crewe away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Salford City carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Salford City, 1 for Crewe and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Salford City in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Crewe in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 56% versus Crewe 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Salford City 48% | Crewe 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.30 xG and Crewe 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 1.056 / defence 1.086 | Crewe attack 0.874 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.129. Data: 46 Salford City games / 46 Crewe games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Salford City 41% | Draw 29% | Crewe 30%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Crewe 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Salford City as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salford City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Salford City 80% | Crewe 30%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (46 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Crewe | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Aug 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 41% | Draw 29% | Crewe 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Salford City 1.30 / Crewe 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 1.056 / def 1.086 | Crewe attack 0.874 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Salford City (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Crewe xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Crewe kick off?
Salford City vs Crewe kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 August 2025 at Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Crewe?
Salford City 1 - 3 Crewe.
Where is Salford City vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Crewe part of?
Salford City vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 41% chance of winning, Crewe a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Salford City and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Crewe?
Record (6 meetings): Salford City 3W | Draws 2 | Crewe 1W.
What form are Salford City and Crewe in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Salford City (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Salford City's attack at 1.06x the league average against Crewe's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crewe's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
41%
2.42
29%
3.51
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.38
1.07
Crewe xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
8%
12.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Salford City and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Salford City and 1.07 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Salford City come into this having played 46 games, going 18W 15D 13L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D. Salford City haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Crewe sit at 1.35 PPG from 46 outings (15W 17D 14L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. Crewe haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salford City on 1.50 PPG, Crewe on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Salford City's home form reads 10W 5D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Crewe have taken 1.26 points per game from 23 outings (6W 11D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Salford City are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 1.07 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 46 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Pre-Season
Crewe
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Crewe in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 18W 15D 13L in their last 46 games (1.50 PPG), while Crewe have gone 15W 17D 14L in their last 46 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Crewe away?
Salford City's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.52 PPG; Crewe away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Salford City or Crewe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Crewe in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Crewe have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2022, when Salford City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Salford City's record when hosting Crewe specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Salford City
2
Draws
3
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Crewe?
From 8 meetings on record, Salford City have won 3, Crewe have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Crewe 1-0 Salford City.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Crewe see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 48%, Crewe 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 48% for Salford City and 22% for Crewe.
On the defensive side: Salford City keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Crewe in 35%; Crewe in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Crewe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Salford City's recent matches and 48% of Crewe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salford City vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Salford City's recent games and 22% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Crewe tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Crewe in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crewe cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Salford City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe beat Salford City 1-3 at Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.30 xG and Crewe 1.07 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Crewe outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.06 / defence 1.09 against Crewe attack 0.87 / defence 0.90, drawn from 46/46 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 41% | Draw 29% | Crewe 30%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Crewe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 48%, Crewe 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Crewe's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.50 PPG, Crewe 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crewe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.