Rochdale 1-2 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rochdale vs Stockport County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rochdale host Stockport County at Crown Oil Arena in League Two, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 21 February 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Rochdale have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Crown Oil Arena, Rochdale have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stockport County — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Stockport County have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Stockport County's 2.00 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Rochdale's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Rochdale in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Stockport County in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rochdale 48% versus Stockport County 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rochdale 42% | Stockport County 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rochdale 0.81 xG and Stockport County 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rochdale attack 0.737 / defence 1.260 | Stockport County attack 1.101 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.079. Rochdale's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 78 Rochdale games / 31 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rochdale 20% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 54%. Fair-value odds: Rochdale 5.00 | Draw 3.85 | Stockport County 1.85. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Rochdale 60% | Stockport County 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rochdale vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Crown Oil Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rochdale 20% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Rochdale 0.81 / Stockport County 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Rochdale attack 0.737 / def 1.260 | Stockport County attack 1.101 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.180 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Rochdale xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Stockport County xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rochdale vs Stockport County kick off?
Rochdale vs Stockport County kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 21 February 2023 at Crown Oil Arena.
What was the final score in Rochdale vs Stockport County?
Rochdale 1 - 2 Stockport County.
Where is Rochdale vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Crown Oil Arena.
What competition is Rochdale vs Stockport County part of?
Rochdale vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Rochdale vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Rochdale a 20% chance of winning, Stockport County a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rochdale vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Rochdale and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Rochdale vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rochdale and Stockport County?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rochdale and Stockport County in?
Rochdale (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Stockport County (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rochdale's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Stockport County's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Rochdale's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 78/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
20%
4.96
26%
3.82
54%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Rochdale xG
Total xG
2.30
1.50
Stockport County xG
4.96
20%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
1.87
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
5%
22.16
24%
4.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 15.0 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rochdale vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Rochdale and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Rochdale and 1.50 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Rochdale vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, Rochdale have picked up 0.68 PPG on a 5W 6D 20L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Stockport County's form line: 15W 6D 10L from 31 games, 1.65 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Stockport County are the form team by 0.97 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rochdale.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rochdale have posted 0.60 PPG from 15 outings (2W 3D 10L).
On the road, Stockport County have gone 6W 2D 7L from 15 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rochdale are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.48 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rochdale
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rochdale and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Rochdale have gone 5W 6D 20L in their last 31 games (0.68 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 15W 6D 10L in their last 31 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rochdale at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rochdale at home: 0.60 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Rochdale or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rochdale have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Stockport County in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Rochdale
0
Draws
2
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rochdale and Stockport County?
From 2 meetings on record, Rochdale have won 0, Stockport County have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rochdale and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Stockport County 1-0 Rochdale.
Who has won more matches between Rochdale and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rochdale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rochdale 60%, Stockport County 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Rochdale) and 53% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Stockport County in 33%; Rochdale have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rochdale home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rochdale play Stockport County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Rochdale's games and 53% of Stockport County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rochdale vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Rochdale's recent games and 53% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rochdale and Stockport County tend to score early?
Rochdale have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stockport County edge out Rochdale 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Rochdale 1-2 at Crown Oil Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rochdale 0.81 xG and Stockport County 1.50 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rochdale attack 0.74 / defence 1.26 against Stockport County attack 1.10 / defence 0.93, drawn from 78/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rochdale 20% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 54%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rochdale 42%, Stockport County 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rochdale's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Stockport County's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.