Port Vale 2-0 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port Vale at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port Vale vs Sutton Utd fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sutton Utd make the trip to Vale Park to face Port Vale in League Two, Regular Season - 39. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Port Vale (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Port Vale have posted 5W 3D 2L at Vale Park — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vale Park.
Sutton Utd have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sutton Utd's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Port Vale, 1.30 for Sutton Utd — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Port Vale lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 7.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2021, ended 3–4 with Sutton Utd winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Port Vale half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Sutton Utd half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 57% versus Sutton Utd 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 40% | Sutton Utd 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.52 xG and Sutton Utd 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 1.113 / defence 0.895 | Sutton Utd attack 0.987 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 1.018 / away 1.132. Sutton Utd bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing Port Vale's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Port Vale games / 38 Sutton Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 47% | Draw 30% | Sutton Utd 23%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Sutton Utd 4.35. Port Vale hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port Vale at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port Vale if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Port Vale 40% | Sutton Utd 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Sutton Utd | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 47% | Draw 30% | Sutton Utd 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Port Vale 1.52 / Sutton Utd 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 1.113 / def 0.895 | Sutton Utd attack 0.987 / def 1.345 | league avg home 1.018 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Sutton Utd xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Sutton Utd kick off?
Port Vale vs Sutton Utd kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 March 2022 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Sutton Utd?
Port Vale 2 - 0 Sutton Utd.
Where is Port Vale vs Sutton Utd being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Sutton Utd part of?
Port Vale vs Sutton Utd is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Sutton Utd?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 47% chance of winning, Sutton Utd a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Sutton Utd?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Port Vale and Sutton Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Sutton Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Sutton Utd?
Record (1 meetings): Port Vale 0W | Draws 0 | Sutton Utd 1W.
What form are Port Vale and Sutton Utd in?
Port Vale (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Sutton Utd (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Port Vale's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Sutton Utd's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Sutton Utd's attack (0.99x) against Port Vale's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
47%
2.11
30%
3.37
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.52
1.00
Sutton Utd xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
5%
20.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Sutton Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Sutton Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.00 for Sutton Utd, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Sutton Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Port Vale's recent record stands at 16W 12D 9L from 37 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Sutton Utd, meanwhile, have gone 17W 10D 10L across 37 games — 1.65 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Port Vale against 1.65 for Sutton Utd. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Port Vale have managed 9W 5D 4L from 18 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sutton Utd's away record stands at 6W 5D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Port Vale are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Sutton Utd are on 1.54 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Sutton Utd in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Current Season
Sutton Utd
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Sutton Utd in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 16W 12D 9L in their last 37 games (1.62 PPG), while Sutton Utd have gone 17W 10D 10L in their last 37 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Sutton Utd away?
Port Vale's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.78 PPG; Sutton Utd away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Sutton Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sutton Utd in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Port Vale
0
Draws
1
Sutton Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Sutton Utd?
From 2 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 1, Sutton Utd have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Sutton Utd last play each other?
They last met on 26 March 2022, when Port Vale 2-0 Sutton Utd.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 44%, Sutton Utd 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Port Vale) and 44% (Sutton Utd).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Port Vale have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Sutton Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Sutton Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Port Vale's recent matches and 56% of Sutton Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port Vale vs Sutton Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Port Vale's recent games and 44% of Sutton Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Sutton Utd tend to score early?
Port Vale have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sutton Utd in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port Vale cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sutton Utd.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Sutton Utd 2-0 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 39, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.52 xG and Sutton Utd 1.00 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sutton Utd landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 1.11 / defence 0.90 against Sutton Utd attack 0.99 / defence 1.34, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 47% | Draw 30% | Sutton Utd 23%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 40%, Sutton Utd 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sutton Utd's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.62 PPG, Sutton Utd 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.