Oldham 1-3 Walsall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Walsall at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oldham vs Walsall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 13 as Oldham welcome Walsall to Boundary Park. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 19 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Oldham have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Oldham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Boundary Park, Oldham have gone 1W 1D 4L this season (6 games, 0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Walsall stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Walsall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Walsall have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Oldham) versus 1.30 (Walsall). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Oldham in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Walsall in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 33% versus Walsall 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oldham 58% | Walsall 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 1.00 xG and Walsall 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 0.863 / defence 1.285 | Walsall attack 0.779 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.001 / away 1.065. Data: 12 Oldham games / 12 Walsall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oldham 31% | Draw 34% | Walsall 35%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | Walsall 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Walsall are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Walsall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Oldham 33% | Walsall 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oldham vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Boundary Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oldham 31% | Draw 34% | Walsall 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Oldham 1.00 / Walsall 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Oldham attack 0.863 / def 1.285 | Walsall attack 0.779 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.001 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Walsall (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Oldham xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Walsall xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oldham vs Walsall kick off?
Oldham vs Walsall kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 19 October 2021 at Boundary Park.
What was the final score in Oldham vs Walsall?
Oldham 1 - 3 Walsall.
Where is Oldham vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at Boundary Park.
What competition is Oldham vs Walsall part of?
Oldham vs Walsall is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Oldham vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives Oldham a 31% chance of winning, Walsall a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Walsall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Oldham and Walsall will score (BTTS).
Will Oldham vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Walsall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oldham and Walsall in?
Oldham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Walsall (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Oldham's attack at 0.86x the league average against Walsall's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Walsall's attack versus Oldham's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Walsall Win
31%
3.18
34%
2.96
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Oldham xG
Total xG
2.07
1.07
Walsall xG
3.18
31%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
11%
9.25
13%
7.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oldham vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Oldham and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Oldham and 1.07 for Walsall, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Oldham vs Walsall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Oldham's recent record stands at 3W 2D 7L from 12 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Oldham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Walsall, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 5L across 12 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Walsall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oldham on 0.92 PPG, Walsall on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Oldham have managed 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Walsall's away record stands at 0W 3D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Walsall's season.
The Goals Picture
Oldham are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.08 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Walsall in 67%.
Last 12 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oldham
Blended
Walsall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oldham and Walsall in coming into this match?
Oldham have gone 3W 2D 7L in their last 12 games (0.92 PPG), while Walsall have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oldham at home or Walsall away?
Oldham's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oldham at home: 0.67 PPG; Walsall away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Oldham or Walsall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Walsall in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oldham and Walsall runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 29 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Oldham's record when hosting Walsall specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Oldham
0
Draws
3
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Walsall?
From 4 meetings on record, Oldham have won 1, Walsall have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oldham and Walsall last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2025, when Walsall 1-2 Oldham.
Who has won more matches between Oldham and Walsall?
Walsall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oldham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oldham 33%, Walsall 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Oldham) and 33% (Walsall).
On the defensive side: Oldham keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Oldham have failed to score in 50% of games; Walsall in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oldham home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oldham play Walsall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Oldham's recent matches and 50% of Walsall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oldham vs Walsall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Oldham's recent games and 33% of Walsall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oldham and Walsall tend to score early?
Oldham have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Walsall in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Walsall cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Oldham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Walsall beat Oldham 1-3 at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 13, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 1.00 xG and Walsall 1.07 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Walsall outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 0.86 / defence 1.28 against Walsall attack 0.78 / defence 1.16, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oldham 31% | Draw 34% | Walsall 35%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 58%, Walsall 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oldham's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Walsall's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oldham 0.92 PPG, Walsall 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Walsall win broke the near-deadlock. Oldham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Walsall (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.