Oldham 0-0 Crewe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crewe at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oldham vs Crewe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crewe make the trip to Boundary Park to face Oldham in League Two, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Oldham's overall League Two record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Oldham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Boundary Park, Oldham have gone 1W 4D 2L this season (7 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Boundary Park this season.
Crewe have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crewe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crewe's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Oldham — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Crewe — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 40% versus Crewe 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oldham 27% | Crewe 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 1.01 xG and Crewe 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 0.749 / defence 1.013 | Crewe attack 1.014 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.207. Oldham's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Oldham games / 61 Crewe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oldham 30% | Draw 28% | Crewe 41%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Crewe 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crewe are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crewe if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Oldham 57% | Crewe 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oldham vs Crewe | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Boundary Park • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oldham 30% | Draw 28% | Crewe 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Oldham 1.01 / Crewe 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Oldham attack 0.749 / def 1.013 | Crewe attack 1.014 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Crewe (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Oldham xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Crewe xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oldham vs Crewe kick off?
Oldham vs Crewe kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 November 2025 at Boundary Park.
What was the final score in Oldham vs Crewe?
Oldham 0 - 0 Crewe.
Where is Oldham vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at Boundary Park.
What competition is Oldham vs Crewe part of?
Oldham vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Oldham vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Oldham a 30% chance of winning, Crewe a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Oldham and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Oldham vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Crewe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oldham and Crewe in?
Oldham (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Crewe (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Oldham's attack rating (0.75) and Crewe's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Crewe's attack (1.01x) against Oldham's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 15/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
30%
3.32
28%
3.51
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Oldham xG
Total xG
2.25
1.24
Crewe xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
9%
11.49
15%
6.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oldham vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Oldham and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Oldham and 1.24 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Oldham vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Oldham's recent record stands at 4W 7D 4L from 15 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Oldham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crewe, meanwhile, have gone 8W 1D 6L across 15 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Crewe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Oldham against 1.67 for Crewe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Oldham have managed 1W 4D 2L from 7 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crewe's away record stands at 3W 1D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crewe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Oldham are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 1.53 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crewe in 60%.
Defensively: Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oldham
Blended
Crewe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oldham and Crewe in coming into this match?
Oldham have gone 4W 7D 4L in their last 15 games (1.27 PPG), while Crewe have gone 8W 1D 6L in their last 15 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oldham at home or Crewe away?
Crewe's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oldham at home: 1.00 PPG; Crewe away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Oldham or Crewe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Crewe in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Oldham
1
Draws
1
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Crewe?
From 2 meetings on record, Oldham have won 0, Crewe have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oldham and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2026, when Crewe 2-1 Oldham.
Who has won more matches between Oldham and Crewe?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oldham see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oldham 57%, Crewe 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Oldham) and 57% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Oldham have failed to score in 29% of games; Crewe in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oldham home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oldham play Crewe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Oldham's games and 71% of Crewe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oldham vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Oldham's recent games and 57% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oldham and Crewe tend to score early?
Oldham have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Crewe in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Oldham's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 16, as Oldham and Crewe drew 0-0 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 1.01 xG and Crewe 1.24 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Oldham fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Crewe landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 0.75 / defence 1.01 against Crewe attack 1.01 / defence 0.99, drawn from 15/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oldham 30% | Draw 28% | Crewe 41%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 27%, Crewe 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oldham's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crewe's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oldham 1.27 PPG, Crewe 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Oldham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.