Oldham vs Crawley Town – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oldham at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oldham vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oldham host Crawley Town at Boundary Park in League Two, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Oldham have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Oldham have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Oldham's home record at Boundary Park: 8W 1D 1L from 10 League Two appearances (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Boundary Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Oldham are significantly better at Boundary Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League Two this season, Crawley Town have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Oldham) versus 1.00 (Crawley Town). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Oldham have won 1, Crawley Town 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with Oldham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Oldham in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 44% versus Crawley Town 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oldham 48% | Crawley Town 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 1.62 xG and Crawley Town 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 1.189 / defence 0.732 | Crawley Town attack 1.032 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.109. Oldham's defence rating of 0.732 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Oldham games / 50 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oldham 55% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 18%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Crawley Town 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Oldham (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oldham at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Oldham 20% | Crawley Town 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oldham vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Boundary Park • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oldham 55% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Oldham 1.62 / Crawley Town 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Oldham attack 1.189 / def 0.732 | Crawley Town attack 1.032 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Oldham (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Oldham xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Crawley Town xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oldham vs Crawley Town kick off?
Oldham vs Crawley Town is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Boundary Park.
Where is Oldham vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Boundary Park.
What competition is Oldham vs Crawley Town part of?
Oldham vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Oldham vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Oldham a 55% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Oldham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Oldham and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Oldham vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Crawley Town?
Record (4 meetings): Oldham 1W | Draws 3 | Crawley Town 0W.
What form are Oldham and Crawley Town in?
Oldham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Oldham's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Crawley Town's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Oldham's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oldham Win
55%
1.83
27%
3.67
18%
5.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Oldham xG
Total xG
2.46
0.84
Crawley Town xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
5.51
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
4%
27.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.6 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oldham vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Oldham and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Oldham and 0.84 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Oldham vs Crawley Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Oldham come into this having played 50 games, going 20W 15D 15L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Oldham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 0.88 PPG from 50 outings (9W 17D 24L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Oldham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Oldham's home form reads 12W 8D 5L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 0.76 points per game from 25 outings (4W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oldham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Oldham are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 0.94 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oldham
Early Season
Crawley Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oldham and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Oldham have gone 20W 15D 15L in their last 50 games (1.50 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 9W 17D 24L in their last 50 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oldham at home or Crawley Town away?
Oldham's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oldham at home: 1.76 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Oldham or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oldham and Crawley Town runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Oldham's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Oldham
3
Draws
0
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Crawley Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Oldham have won 1, Crawley Town have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Oldham and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Oldham 2-0 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Oldham and Crawley Town?
Oldham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oldham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oldham 40%, Crawley Town 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Oldham) and 48% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Oldham keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Crawley Town in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oldham home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oldham play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Oldham's recent matches and 40% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oldham vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Oldham's recent games and 48% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oldham and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Oldham have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.