Notts County 1-3 Colchester – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Notts County at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Notts County vs Colchester fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Colchester travel to Meadow Lane to take on Notts County. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Notts County stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Notts County's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Meadow Lane this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Colchester — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Colchester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Colchester have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Notts County carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Notts County, 2 for Colchester and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Colchester winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Notts County in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Colchester in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 53% versus Colchester 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 48% | Colchester 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.44 xG and Colchester 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.270 / defence 0.908 | Colchester attack 1.025 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.189. Notts County carry an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — their λ of 1.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 62 Notts County games / 62 Colchester games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 45% | Draw 26% | Colchester 29%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Colchester 3.45. Notts County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Notts County as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Notts County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Notts County 60% | Colchester 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Colchester | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 45% | Draw 26% | Colchester 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Notts County 1.44 / Colchester 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 1.270 / def 0.908 | Colchester attack 1.025 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Notts County (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Colchester xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Colchester kick off?
Notts County vs Colchester kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Colchester?
Notts County 1 - 3 Colchester.
Where is Notts County vs Colchester being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Colchester part of?
Notts County vs Colchester is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Colchester?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 45% chance of winning, Colchester a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Colchester?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Notts County and Colchester will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Colchester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Colchester?
Record (4 meetings): Notts County 1W | Draws 1 | Colchester 2W.
What form are Notts County and Colchester in?
Notts County (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Colchester (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Notts County's attack rating (1.27) and Colchester's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Colchester's attack versus Notts County's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
45%
2.24
26%
3.80
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.54
1.11
Colchester xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
7%
14.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Colchester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Notts County and Colchester expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Notts County and 1.11 for Colchester, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Colchester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Notts County have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 28W 14D 20L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Notts County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Colchester's form line: 21W 25D 16L from 62 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Colchester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Notts County on 1.58 PPG, Colchester on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Notts County have posted 1.65 PPG from 31 outings (15W 6D 10L).
On the road, Colchester have gone 9W 14D 8L from 31 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Notts County are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Colchester are on 1.21 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Colchester in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Blended
Colchester
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Colchester in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 28W 14D 20L in their last 62 games (1.58 PPG), while Colchester have gone 21W 25D 16L in their last 62 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Colchester away?
Notts County's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.65 PPG; Colchester away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Notts County or Colchester been keeping clean sheets recently?
Notts County have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Colchester in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Notts County and Colchester runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Notts County's record when hosting Colchester specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Notts County
1
Draws
3
Colchester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Colchester?
From 6 meetings on record, Notts County have won 2, Colchester have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Colchester last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Colchester 0-1 Notts County.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and Colchester?
Colchester have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 48%, Colchester 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Notts County) and 32% (Colchester).
On the defensive side: Notts County keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Colchester in 39%; Colchester in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Colchester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Colchester?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Notts County's recent matches and 52% of Colchester's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Notts County vs Colchester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Notts County's recent games and 32% of Colchester's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Notts County and Colchester tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Colchester in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Colchester cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Notts County.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colchester beat Notts County 1-3 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 17, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.44 xG and Colchester 1.11 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Colchester outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.27 / defence 0.91 against Colchester attack 1.02 / defence 0.85, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 45% | Draw 26% | Colchester 29%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Colchester win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 48%, Colchester 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Colchester's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Notts County 1.58 PPG, Colchester 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colchester win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Colchester (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.