Notts County 5-2 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Notts County at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Notts County vs Cheltenham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Meadow Lane plays host to Notts County versus Cheltenham in League Two, Regular Season - 39. Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Notts County's overall League Two record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Notts County's home record at Meadow Lane: 6W 1D 3L from 10 League Two appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cheltenham have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D D D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Cheltenham have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Notts County's favour (1.90 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Notts County 2W, Cheltenham 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Notts County winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Notts County half-time and goal-timing data (83 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cheltenham half-time and goal-timing data (83 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 52% versus Cheltenham 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 48% | Cheltenham 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.84 xG and Cheltenham 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.234 / defence 0.910 | Cheltenham attack 0.956 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.198. Cheltenham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Notts County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 83 Notts County games / 83 Cheltenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 56% | Draw 23% | Cheltenham 21%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Cheltenham 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Notts County (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Notts County are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Notts County 40% | Cheltenham 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Cheltenham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 56% | Draw 23% | Cheltenham 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Notts County 1.84 / Cheltenham 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 1.234 / def 0.910 | Cheltenham attack 0.956 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Notts County (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Cheltenham xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Cheltenham kick off?
Notts County vs Cheltenham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Cheltenham?
Notts County 5 - 2 Cheltenham.
Where is Notts County vs Cheltenham being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Cheltenham part of?
Notts County vs Cheltenham is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Cheltenham?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 56% chance of winning, Cheltenham a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Cheltenham?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Notts County and Cheltenham will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Cheltenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Cheltenham?
Record (3 meetings): Notts County 2W | Draws 0 | Cheltenham 1W.
What form are Notts County and Cheltenham in?
Notts County (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Cheltenham (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Notts County's attack at 1.23x the league average against Cheltenham's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cheltenham's attack (0.96x) against Notts County's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 83/83 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
56%
1.78
23%
4.41
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.89
1.04
Cheltenham xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
3%
29.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Cheltenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Notts County and Cheltenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Notts County and 1.04 for Cheltenham, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Cheltenham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Notts County's recent record stands at 40W 17D 26L from 83 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Cheltenham, meanwhile, have gone 27W 21D 35L across 83 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-D-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Notts County by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cheltenham heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Notts County have managed 21W 7D 14L from 42 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cheltenham's away record stands at 10W 12D 20L across 42 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Notts County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Notts County are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Cheltenham are on 1.22 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 83 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Current Season
Cheltenham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Cheltenham in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 40W 17D 26L in their last 83 games (1.65 PPG), while Cheltenham have gone 27W 21D 35L in their last 83 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Cheltenham away?
Notts County's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.67 PPG; Cheltenham away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Notts County or Cheltenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Notts County have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cheltenham in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Notts County go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Notts County won 5-2 on 21 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Notts County have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cheltenham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Notts County
0
Draws
1
Cheltenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Cheltenham?
From 4 meetings on record, Notts County have won 3, Cheltenham have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Cheltenham last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Notts County 5-2 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and Cheltenham?
Notts County have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 48%, Cheltenham 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Notts County) and 55% (Cheltenham).
On the defensive side: Notts County keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Cheltenham in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Cheltenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Cheltenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Notts County's recent matches and 57% of Cheltenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Notts County vs Cheltenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Notts County's recent games and 55% of Cheltenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Notts County and Cheltenham tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Cheltenham in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Notts County run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Cheltenham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County beat Cheltenham 5-2 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 39, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.84 xG and Cheltenham 1.04 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Notts County beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cheltenham outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.23 / defence 0.91 against Cheltenham attack 0.96 / defence 1.26, drawn from 83/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 56% | Draw 23% | Cheltenham 21%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 48%, Cheltenham 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (83 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Cheltenham's trading profile (83 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Notts County arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. Notts County (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cheltenham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.