Northampton 1-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Northampton (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Northampton face Stevenage.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Northampton host Stevenage at Sixfields Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 39. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Northampton stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 League Two matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Northampton have posted 5W 3D 2L at Sixfields Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sixfields Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League Two games this season, Stevenage have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Stevenage have gone 1W 7D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Northampton have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Northampton: 3 wins from 3 previous clashes against 0 for Stevenage, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 3–2 with Northampton winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Northampton and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Northampton in-play and half-time data (83 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (83 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 46% versus Stevenage 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 39% | Stevenage 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.01 xG and Stevenage 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.864 / defence 0.733 | Stevenage attack 0.864 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 1.050. Northampton's defence rating of 0.733 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 84 Northampton games / 83 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 41% | Draw 37% | Stevenage 22%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.44 | Draw 2.70 | Stevenage 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.67. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.67 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Stevenage's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Northampton at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Northampton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.67 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Northampton 30% | Stevenage 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Stevenage | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 41% | Draw 37% | Stevenage 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 32% | xG Northampton 1.01 / Stevenage 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.864 / def 0.733 | Stevenage attack 0.864 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.146 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Northampton (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Stevenage xG
32%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Stevenage kick off?
Northampton vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Stevenage?
Northampton 1 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Northampton vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Stevenage part of?
Northampton vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 41% chance of winning, Stevenage a 22% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Northampton and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Stevenage?
Record (3 meetings): Northampton 3W | Draws 0 | Stevenage 0W.
What form are Northampton and Stevenage in?
Northampton (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Stevenage (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Northampton's attack at 0.86x the league average against Stevenage's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 84/83 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.3%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
41%
2.42
37%
2.74
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Northampton xG
Total xG
1.67
0.67
Stevenage xG
2.42
41%
Home win
2.74
37%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.10
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
51%
1.94
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
8%
12.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.8 | 12.5 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 12.6 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.4%.
How many goals are Northampton and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Northampton and 0.67 for Stevenage, a combined total of 1.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Northampton's recent record stands at 40W 23D 20L from 83 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 30W 24D 29L across 83 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Northampton on 1.72 PPG, Stevenage on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Northampton have managed 22W 10D 9L from 41 games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 7W 17D 17L across 41 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Northampton are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.16 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 83 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 40W 23D 20L in their last 83 games (1.72 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 30W 24D 29L in their last 83 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Stevenage away?
Northampton's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.85 PPG; Stevenage away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Northampton or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Stevenage in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2021, when Northampton won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Northampton's record when hosting Stevenage specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Northampton
2
Draws
4
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Stevenage?
From 10 meetings on record, Northampton have won 4, Stevenage have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Northampton 3-1 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 37%, Stevenage 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Northampton) and 39% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Northampton have failed to score in 27% of games; Stevenage in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Northampton's recent matches and 46% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Northampton's recent games and 39% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Stevenage tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Northampton and Stevenage share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton and Stevenage finished level at 1-1 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.01 xG and Stevenage 0.67 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.86 / defence 0.73 against Stevenage attack 0.86 / defence 1.02, drawn from 84/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 41% | Draw 37% | Stevenage 22%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 39%, Stevenage 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Stevenage's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.72 PPG, Stevenage 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.