Mansfield Town 2-1 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mansfield Town at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mansfield Town face Gillingham.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mansfield Town host Gillingham at One Call Stadium in League Two (matchday 45). Kick-off is Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Mansfield Town have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Mansfield Town have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Gillingham stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Gillingham away from home: 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Mansfield Town at 1.60 PPG versus Gillingham's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Mansfield Town, 0 for Gillingham and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Mansfield Town 1–1 Gillingham — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Mansfield Town trading profile (last 90 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Gillingham trading profile (last 90 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 62% versus Gillingham 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 53% | Gillingham 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 1.97 xG and Gillingham 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 1.206 / defence 1.001 | Gillingham attack 0.790 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.331. Gillingham's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Data: built from Mansfield Town's last 90 games and Gillingham's last 90.
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 59% | Draw 22% | Gillingham 20%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 1.70 | Draw 4.62 | Gillingham 5.08. The model has a clear lean to Mansfield Town (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mansfield Town at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Mansfield Town's last 10 home games and Gillingham's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mansfield Town 80% (last 10 home games) | Gillingham 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, matchday 45 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 59% | Draw 22% | Gillingham 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Mansfield Town 1.97 / Gillingham 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 1.206 / def 1.001 | Gillingham attack 0.790 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Gillingham xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mansfield Town vs Gillingham FAQs
What time does Mansfield Town vs Gillingham kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Gillingham kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at One Call Stadium.
What was the final score in Mansfield Town vs Gillingham?
Mansfield Town 2 - 1 Gillingham.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Gillingham part of?
Mansfield Town vs Gillingham is a League Two fixture (matchday 45) (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 59% chance of winning, Gillingham a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Mansfield Town and Gillingham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mansfield Town vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Mansfield Town's attack at 1.21x the league average against Gillingham's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Mansfield Town's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mansfield Town's last 90 games and Gillingham's last 90 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
59%
1.70
22%
4.62
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
3.02
1.05
Gillingham xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
14%
7.19
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
3%
36.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.1 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mansfield Town vs Gillingham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 1.05 for Gillingham, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Gillingham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mansfield Town's recent record stands at 44W 25D 21L from 90 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Gillingham, meanwhile, have gone 32W 22D 36L across 90 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mansfield Town by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gillingham heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mansfield Town have managed 21W 15D 9L from their last 45 home games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gillingham's away record stands at 12W 9D 24L across their last 45 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mansfield Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.88 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gillingham in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 90 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Current Season
Gillingham
Current Season
Mansfield Town (Home) vs Gillingham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mansfield Town
Current Season
Gillingham
Current Season
❓ Mansfield Town vs Gillingham Form FAQs
What form are Mansfield Town and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 44W 25D 21L in their last 90 games (1.74 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 32W 22D 36L in their last 90 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Gillingham away?
Mansfield Town's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 1.73 PPG; Gillingham away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Mansfield Town or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mansfield Town have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Gillingham in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mansfield Town's record when hosting Gillingham specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Mansfield Town
1
Draws
0
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Mansfield Town vs Gillingham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Gillingham?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Mansfield Town have won 3, Gillingham have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Gillingham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 April 2024: Mansfield Town 2-1 Gillingham.
Who has won more matches between Mansfield Town and Gillingham?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 62%, Gillingham 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Mansfield Town) and 31% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Gillingham in 31%; Gillingham in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mansfield Town vs Gillingham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mansfield Town and Gillingham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Mansfield Town's recent matches and 33% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mansfield Town and Gillingham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Mansfield Town's recent games and 31% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mansfield Town and Gillingham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Mansfield Town's recent matches and 67% of Gillingham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mansfield Town edge out Gillingham 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town beat Gillingham 2-1 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.97 xG and Gillingham 1.05 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 1.21 / defence 1.00 against Gillingham attack 0.79 / defence 1.14, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 59% | Draw 22% | Gillingham 20%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 53%, Gillingham 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mansfield Town's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Gillingham's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Mansfield Town arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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