Hartlepool 0-3 Swindon Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swindon Town at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hartlepool vs Swindon Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 44 as Hartlepool welcome Swindon Town to The Suit Direct Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hartlepool stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hartlepool have posted 2W 5D 3L at The Suit Direct Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all League Two games this season, Swindon Town have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Swindon Town's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Hartlepool) versus 1.30 (Swindon Town). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hartlepool, 1 for Swindon Town and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2021, ended 1–3 with Swindon Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hartlepool in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Swindon Town in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hartlepool 50% versus Swindon Town 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hartlepool 43% | Swindon Town 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hartlepool 1.08 xG and Swindon Town 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hartlepool attack 0.792 / defence 1.195 | Swindon Town attack 1.179 / defence 1.372. League average goals — home 0.996 / away 1.085. Hartlepool's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Swindon Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.372 — this is suppressing Hartlepool's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Hartlepool games / 42 Swindon Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hartlepool 27% | Draw 26% | Swindon Town 48%. Fair-value odds: Hartlepool 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Swindon Town 2.08. Swindon Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Swindon Town are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swindon Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hartlepool 40% | Swindon Town 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hartlepool vs Swindon Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: The Suit Direct Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hartlepool 27% | Draw 26% | Swindon Town 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Hartlepool 1.08 / Swindon Town 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Hartlepool attack 0.792 / def 1.195 | Swindon Town attack 1.179 / def 1.372 | league avg home 0.996 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Hartlepool xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Swindon Town xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hartlepool vs Swindon Town kick off?
Hartlepool vs Swindon Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at The Suit Direct Stadium.
What was the final score in Hartlepool vs Swindon Town?
Hartlepool 0 - 3 Swindon Town.
Where is Hartlepool vs Swindon Town being played?
The match is being played at The Suit Direct Stadium.
What competition is Hartlepool vs Swindon Town part of?
Hartlepool vs Swindon Town is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Hartlepool vs Swindon Town?
Our statistical model gives Hartlepool a 27% chance of winning, Swindon Town a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hartlepool vs Swindon Town?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hartlepool and Swindon Town will score (BTTS).
Will Hartlepool vs Swindon Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hartlepool and Swindon Town?
Record (1 meetings): Hartlepool 0W | Draws 0 | Swindon Town 1W.
What form are Hartlepool and Swindon Town in?
Hartlepool (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Swindon Town (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hartlepool's attack at 0.79x the league average against Swindon Town's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Swindon Town's attack versus Hartlepool's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
27%
3.73
26%
3.90
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Hartlepool xG
Total xG
2.61
1.53
Swindon Town xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
6%
17.21
16%
6.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.2 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hartlepool vs Swindon Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Hartlepool and Swindon Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Hartlepool and 1.53 for Swindon Town, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Hartlepool vs Swindon Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hartlepool come into this having played 42 games, going 13W 11D 18L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Swindon Town sit at 1.55 PPG from 42 outings (18W 11D 13L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hartlepool on 1.19 PPG, Swindon Town on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hartlepool's home form reads 8W 7D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Swindon Town have taken 1.70 points per game from 20 outings (10W 4D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Hartlepool are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Swindon Town are on 1.60 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Swindon Town in 67%.
Last 42 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hartlepool
Current Season
Swindon Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hartlepool and Swindon Town in coming into this match?
Hartlepool have gone 13W 11D 18L in their last 42 games (1.19 PPG), while Swindon Town have gone 18W 11D 13L in their last 42 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hartlepool at home or Swindon Town away?
Swindon Town's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hartlepool at home: 1.55 PPG; Swindon Town away: 1.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2022, when Swindon Town won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hartlepool's record when hosting Swindon Town specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hartlepool
0
Draws
3
Swindon Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hartlepool and Swindon Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Hartlepool have won 1, Swindon Town have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hartlepool and Swindon Town last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Hartlepool 2-1 Swindon Town.
Who has won more matches between Hartlepool and Swindon Town?
Swindon Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hartlepool see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hartlepool 55%, Swindon Town 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Hartlepool) and 65% (Swindon Town).
On the defensive side: Hartlepool have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hartlepool home games / Swindon Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hartlepool play Swindon Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Hartlepool's games and 70% of Swindon Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hartlepool vs Swindon Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Hartlepool's recent games and 65% of Swindon Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hartlepool and Swindon Town tend to score early?
Hartlepool have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Swindon Town in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Swindon Town run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hartlepool.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swindon Town beat Hartlepool 0-3 at The Suit Direct Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hartlepool 1.08 xG and Swindon Town 1.53 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hartlepool fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Swindon Town outscored their 1.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hartlepool attack 0.79 / defence 1.20 against Swindon Town attack 1.18 / defence 1.37, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hartlepool 27% | Draw 26% | Swindon Town 48%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hartlepool 43%, Swindon Town 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hartlepool's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Swindon Town's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hartlepool 1.19 PPG, Swindon Town 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swindon Town win broke the near-deadlock. Hartlepool (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Swindon Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.