Hartlepool 0-1 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port Vale at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hartlepool vs Port Vale encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hartlepool host Port Vale at The Suit Direct Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 42. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 15 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hartlepool — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hartlepool's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at The Suit Direct Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all League Two games this season, Port Vale have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in League Two this season, Port Vale have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Port Vale's 2.30 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Hartlepool's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Hartlepool have won 0, Port Vale 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Port Vale winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hartlepool in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Port Vale in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hartlepool 49% versus Port Vale 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hartlepool 42% | Port Vale 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hartlepool 0.91 xG and Port Vale 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hartlepool attack 0.867 / defence 1.208 | Port Vale attack 1.009 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 0.977 / away 1.095. Data: 41 Hartlepool games / 41 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hartlepool 25% | Draw 29% | Port Vale 46%. Fair-value odds: Hartlepool 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Port Vale 2.17. Port Vale hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port Vale are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port Vale offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Hartlepool 40% | Port Vale 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hartlepool vs Port Vale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: The Suit Direct Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hartlepool 25% | Draw 29% | Port Vale 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Hartlepool 0.91 / Port Vale 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Hartlepool attack 0.867 / def 1.208 | Port Vale attack 1.009 / def 1.077 | league avg home 0.977 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Hartlepool xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Port Vale xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hartlepool vs Port Vale kick off?
Hartlepool vs Port Vale kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 15 April 2022 at The Suit Direct Stadium.
What was the final score in Hartlepool vs Port Vale?
Hartlepool 0 - 1 Port Vale.
Where is Hartlepool vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at The Suit Direct Stadium.
What competition is Hartlepool vs Port Vale part of?
Hartlepool vs Port Vale is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Hartlepool vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Hartlepool a 25% chance of winning, Port Vale a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hartlepool vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Hartlepool and Port Vale will score (BTTS).
Will Hartlepool vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hartlepool and Port Vale?
Record (1 meetings): Hartlepool 0W | Draws 0 | Port Vale 1W.
What form are Hartlepool and Port Vale in?
Hartlepool (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Port Vale (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hartlepool's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Port Vale's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, Port Vale's attack versus Hartlepool's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
25%
4.02
29%
3.41
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Hartlepool xG
Total xG
2.25
1.33
Port Vale xG
4.02
25%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
7%
15.26
18%
5.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 14.1 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hartlepool vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Hartlepool and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Hartlepool and 1.33 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Hartlepool vs Port Vale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Hartlepool have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 14W 11D 16L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Port Vale's form line: 20W 12D 9L from 41 games, 1.76 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Port Vale are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hartlepool.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hartlepool have posted 1.70 PPG from 20 outings (9W 7D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Hartlepool are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Port Vale have gone 9W 6D 5L from 20 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Hartlepool are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.54 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Last 41 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hartlepool
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hartlepool and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Hartlepool have gone 14W 11D 16L in their last 41 games (1.29 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 20W 12D 9L in their last 41 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hartlepool at home or Port Vale away?
Hartlepool's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hartlepool at home: 1.70 PPG; Port Vale away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Hartlepool or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hartlepool have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Port Vale in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hartlepool and Port Vale runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hartlepool
0
Draws
2
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hartlepool and Port Vale?
From 2 meetings on record, Hartlepool have won 0, Port Vale have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hartlepool and Port Vale last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2022, when Hartlepool 0-1 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Hartlepool and Port Vale?
Port Vale have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hartlepool see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hartlepool 55%, Port Vale 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Hartlepool) and 45% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Hartlepool keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hartlepool home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hartlepool play Port Vale?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Hartlepool's games and 70% of Port Vale's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hartlepool vs Port Vale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Hartlepool's recent games and 45% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hartlepool and Port Vale tend to score early?
Hartlepool have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Port Vale in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Port Vale edge out Hartlepool 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Hartlepool 0-1 at The Suit Direct Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hartlepool 0.91 xG and Port Vale 1.33 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hartlepool fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hartlepool attack 0.87 / defence 1.21 against Port Vale attack 1.01 / defence 1.08, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hartlepool 25% | Draw 29% | Port Vale 46%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hartlepool 42%, Port Vale 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hartlepool's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Port Vale's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Port Vale arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. Hartlepool (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Port Vale (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.