Hartlepool 0-2 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Hartlepool take on Bradford.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Bradford travel to The Suit Direct Stadium to take on Hartlepool. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 15 March 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Hartlepool have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hartlepool's home record at The Suit Direct Stadium: 3W 5D 2L from 10 League Two appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Suit Direct Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bradford stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 League Two matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bradford's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Hartlepool carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hartlepool, 0 for Bradford and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2021, ended 3–1 with Hartlepool winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hartlepool in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Bradford in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hartlepool 49% versus Bradford 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hartlepool 43% | Bradford 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hartlepool 0.97 xG and Bradford 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hartlepool attack 0.878 / defence 0.982 | Bradford attack 0.765 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.022 / away 1.097. Data: 35 Hartlepool games / 36 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hartlepool 35% | Draw 37% | Bradford 27%. Fair-value odds: Hartlepool 2.86 | Draw 2.70 | Bradford 3.70. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.79 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates are neutral: Hartlepool 60% | Bradford 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hartlepool vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: The Suit Direct Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hartlepool 35% | Draw 37% | Bradford 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Hartlepool 0.97 / Bradford 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Hartlepool attack 0.878 / def 0.982 | Bradford attack 0.765 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.022 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Hartlepool xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Bradford xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hartlepool vs Bradford kick off?
Hartlepool vs Bradford kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 15 March 2022 at The Suit Direct Stadium.
What was the final score in Hartlepool vs Bradford?
Hartlepool 0 - 2 Bradford.
Where is Hartlepool vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at The Suit Direct Stadium.
What competition is Hartlepool vs Bradford part of?
Hartlepool vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Hartlepool vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Hartlepool a 35% chance of winning, Bradford a 27% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Hartlepool vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Hartlepool and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Hartlepool vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hartlepool and Bradford?
Record (1 meetings): Hartlepool 1W | Draws 0 | Bradford 0W.
What form are Hartlepool and Bradford in?
Hartlepool (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Bradford (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hartlepool's attack at 0.88x the league average against Bradford's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Hartlepool's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.83
37%
2.69
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Hartlepool xG
Total xG
1.79
0.82
Bradford xG
2.83
35%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
16%
6.45
10%
9.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 13.7 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hartlepool vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Hartlepool and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Hartlepool and 0.82 for Bradford, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Hartlepool vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hartlepool's recent record stands at 13W 9D 13L from 35 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Bradford, meanwhile, have gone 10W 12D 13L across 35 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hartlepool on 1.37 PPG, Bradford on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hartlepool have managed 9W 6D 2L from 17 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — Hartlepool are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bradford's away record stands at 6W 4D 7L across 17 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hartlepool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hartlepool are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.14 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bradford in 63%.
Last 35 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hartlepool
Current Season
Bradford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hartlepool and Bradford in coming into this match?
Hartlepool have gone 13W 9D 13L in their last 35 games (1.37 PPG), while Bradford have gone 10W 12D 13L in their last 35 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hartlepool at home or Bradford away?
Hartlepool's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hartlepool at home: 1.94 PPG; Bradford away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Hartlepool or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hartlepool have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bradford in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hartlepool and Bradford runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hartlepool's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hartlepool
1
Draws
2
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hartlepool and Bradford?
From 4 meetings on record, Hartlepool have won 1, Bradford have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hartlepool and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Bradford 2-2 Hartlepool.
Who has won more matches between Hartlepool and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hartlepool see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bradford see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hartlepool 59%, Bradford 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Hartlepool) and 35% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Hartlepool keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Bradford in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hartlepool home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hartlepool play Bradford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Hartlepool's recent matches and 47% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hartlepool vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Hartlepool's recent games and 35% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Bradford cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hartlepool.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Hartlepool 0-2 at The Suit Direct Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hartlepool 0.97 xG and Bradford 0.82 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hartlepool fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bradford outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hartlepool attack 0.88 / defence 0.98 against Bradford attack 0.77 / defence 1.08, drawn from 35/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hartlepool 35% | Draw 37% | Bradford 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Bradford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hartlepool 43%, Bradford 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hartlepool's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bradford's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hartlepool 1.37 PPG, Bradford 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Hartlepool (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bradford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.