Harrogate Town 0-1 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port Vale at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Harrogate Town vs Port Vale encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Harrogate Town welcome Port Vale to Exercise Stadium in League Two (matchday 13). Kick-off is Tuesday 22 October 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Harrogate Town stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Harrogate Town have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Port Vale — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Port Vale's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Port Vale are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Harrogate Town, 1 for Port Vale and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Mar 2022, ended Harrogate Town 1–1 Port Vale — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Harrogate Town in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Port Vale in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Harrogate Town 52% versus Port Vale 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Harrogate Town 48% | Port Vale 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Harrogate Town 1.15 xG and Port Vale 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Harrogate Town attack 0.916 / defence 1.182 | Port Vale attack 1.096 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.245. Data: built from Harrogate Town's last 58 games and Port Vale's last 12.
Result probabilities: Harrogate Town 27% | Draw 25% | Port Vale 48%. Fair-value odds: Harrogate Town 3.68 | Draw 4.05 | Port Vale 2.08. Port Vale hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port Vale at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port Vale offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Harrogate Town's last 10 home games and Port Vale's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Harrogate Town 50% (last 10 home games) | Port Vale 20% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Harrogate Town vs Port Vale | Competition: League Two, matchday 13 | Venue: Exercise Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 October 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Harrogate Town 27% | Draw 25% | Port Vale 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Harrogate Town 1.15 / Port Vale 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Harrogate Town attack 0.916 / def 1.182 | Port Vale attack 1.096 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Harrogate Town xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Port Vale xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Harrogate Town vs Port Vale FAQs
What time does Harrogate Town vs Port Vale kick off?
Harrogate Town vs Port Vale kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Tuesday 22 October 2024 at Exercise Stadium.
What was the final score in Harrogate Town vs Port Vale?
Harrogate Town 0 - 1 Port Vale.
Where is Harrogate Town vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at Exercise Stadium.
What competition is Harrogate Town vs Port Vale part of?
Harrogate Town vs Port Vale is a League Two fixture (matchday 13) (England).
Who is favourite to win Harrogate Town vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Harrogate Town a 27% chance of winning, Port Vale a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Harrogate Town vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Harrogate Town and Port Vale will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Harrogate Town vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Harrogate Town's attack rating (0.92) and Port Vale's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Port Vale's attack versus Harrogate Town's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Harrogate Town's last 58 games and Port Vale's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
27%
3.68
25%
4.05
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Harrogate Town xG
Total xG
2.77
1.61
Port Vale xG
3.68
27%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
5%
18.48
15%
6.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Harrogate Town vs Port Vale Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Harrogate Town vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Harrogate Town and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Harrogate Town and 1.61 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Harrogate Town vs Port Vale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Harrogate Town come into this having played 58 games, going 21W 15D 22L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Port Vale sit at 1.12 PPG from 58 outings (17W 14D 27L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Harrogate Town on 1.34 PPG, Port Vale on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Harrogate Town's home form reads 12W 3D 14L across their last 29 home games, a 1.34 PPG return.
Away from home, Port Vale have taken 1.10 points per game from their last 29 away games (8W 8D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Harrogate Town are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.03 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Harrogate Town
Blended
Port Vale
Blended
Harrogate Town (Home) vs Port Vale (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Harrogate Town
Blended
Port Vale
Blended
❓ Harrogate Town vs Port Vale Form FAQs
What form are Harrogate Town and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Harrogate Town have gone 21W 15D 22L in their last 58 games (1.34 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 17W 14D 27L in their last 58 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Harrogate Town at home or Port Vale away?
Harrogate Town's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Harrogate Town at home: 1.34 PPG; Port Vale away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 4 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Harrogate Town's record when hosting Port Vale specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Harrogate Town
2
Draws
2
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Harrogate Town vs Port Vale H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Harrogate Town and Port Vale?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Harrogate Town have won 0, Port Vale have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Harrogate Town and Port Vale last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 March 2025: Port Vale 0-0 Harrogate Town.
Who has won more matches between Harrogate Town and Port Vale?
Port Vale have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Harrogate Town 52%, Port Vale 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Harrogate Town) and 45% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Port Vale in 31%; Harrogate Town have failed to score in 28% of games; Port Vale in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Harrogate Town home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Harrogate Town vs Port Vale Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Harrogate Town and Port Vale matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Harrogate Town's recent matches and 34% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Harrogate Town and Port Vale matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Harrogate Town's recent games and 45% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Harrogate Town and Port Vale matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Harrogate Town's recent matches and 55% of Port Vale's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Port Vale edge out Harrogate Town 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Harrogate Town 0-1 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 1.15 xG and Port Vale 1.61 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Harrogate Town fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.92 / defence 1.18 against Port Vale attack 1.10 / defence 0.94, drawn from 58/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 27% | Draw 25% | Port Vale 48%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 48%, Port Vale 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Harrogate Town's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Port Vale's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.34 PPG, Port Vale 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Port Vale (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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