Harrogate Town 1-2 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crawley Town at 42% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
EnviroVent Stadium plays host to Harrogate Town versus Crawley Town in League Two (matchday 37). Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Harrogate Town's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Harrogate Town's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Crawley Town have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 5W 0D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Harrogate Town, 1.60 for Crawley Town — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Crawley Town, who have 3 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Harrogate Town 1–2 Crawley Town — a Crawley Town win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Crawley Town have won 3 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Harrogate Town — key trading statistics (last 80 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (last 80 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Harrogate Town 58% versus Crawley Town 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Harrogate Town 52% | Crawley Town 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Harrogate Town 1.10 xG and Crawley Town 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Harrogate Town attack 0.835 / defence 1.223 | Crawley Town attack 0.872 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.285. Harrogate Town's defence rating of 1.223 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Crawley Town's projected output up. Data: built from Harrogate Town's last 81 games and Crawley Town's last 80.
Result probabilities: Harrogate Town 30% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 42%. Fair-value odds: Harrogate Town 3.38 | Draw 3.57 | Crawley Town 2.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Crawley Town 3 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Harrogate Town 60% (last 10 home games) | Crawley Town 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 37 | Venue: EnviroVent Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Harrogate Town 30% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Harrogate Town 1.10 / Crawley Town 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Harrogate Town attack 0.835 / def 1.223 | Crawley Town attack 0.872 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Harrogate Town xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Crawley Town xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town FAQs
What time does Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town kick off?
Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at EnviroVent Stadium.
What was the final score in Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town?
Harrogate Town 1 - 2 Crawley Town.
Where is Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at EnviroVent Stadium.
What competition is Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town part of?
Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 37) (England).
Who is favourite to win Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Harrogate Town a 30% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Harrogate Town and Crawley Town will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Harrogate Town's attack at 0.83x the league average against Crawley Town's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.87x) against Harrogate Town's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from Harrogate Town's last 81 games and Crawley Town's last 80 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
30%
3.38
28%
3.57
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Harrogate Town xG
Total xG
2.47
1.37
Crawley Town xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
8%
13.32
14%
7.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Harrogate Town and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Harrogate Town and 1.37 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Harrogate Town's recent record stands at 25W 23D 32L from 80 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Crawley Town, meanwhile, have gone 26W 17D 37L across 80 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Harrogate Town against 1.19 for Crawley Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Harrogate Town have managed 11W 12D 16L from their last 39 home games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crawley Town's away record stands at 8W 9D 22L across their last 39 away games, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Harrogate Town are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.21 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 80 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Harrogate Town
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
Harrogate Town (Home) vs Crawley Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Harrogate Town
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
❓ Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town Form FAQs
What form are Harrogate Town and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Harrogate Town have gone 25W 23D 32L in their last 80 games (1.23 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 26W 17D 37L in their last 80 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Harrogate Town at home or Crawley Town away?
Harrogate Town's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Harrogate Town at home: 1.15 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Harrogate Town and Crawley Town, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Crawley Town have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Harrogate Town have gone 0W 1D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Harrogate Town
2
Draws
6
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Harrogate Town and Crawley Town?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Harrogate Town have won 0, Crawley Town have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Harrogate Town and Crawley Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2026: Crawley Town 2-0 Harrogate Town.
Who has won more matches between Harrogate Town and Crawley Town?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Harrogate Town 56%, Crawley Town 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Harrogate Town) and 49% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Harrogate Town have failed to score in 31% of games; Crawley Town in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Harrogate Town home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Harrogate Town and Crawley Town matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Harrogate Town's recent matches and 49% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Harrogate Town and Crawley Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Harrogate Town's recent games and 49% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Harrogate Town and Crawley Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Harrogate Town's recent matches and 67% of Crawley Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crawley Town edge out Harrogate Town 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Harrogate Town 1-2 at EnviroVent Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 1.10 xG and Crawley Town 1.37 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.83 / defence 1.22 against Crawley Town attack 0.87 / defence 0.92, drawn from 81/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 30% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 42%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 52%, Crawley Town 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Harrogate Town's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Crawley Town's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.23 PPG, Crawley Town 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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