Grimsby 1-1 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bradford at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grimsby vs Bradford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bradford make the trip to Blundell Park to face Grimsby in League Two (matchday 42). The match kicks off on Monday 1 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Grimsby have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Grimsby have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bradford (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Bradford have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Bradford are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Grimsby, 1 for Bradford and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Sep 2023, ended Grimsby 1–1 Bradford — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Grimsby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 85 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Bradford goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 85 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grimsby 59% versus Bradford 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grimsby 45% | Bradford 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grimsby 1.28 xG and Bradford 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grimsby attack 0.934 / defence 1.560 | Bradford attack 0.983 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.278. Grimsby's defence rating of 1.560 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bradford's projected output up. Data: built from Grimsby's last 85 games and Bradford's last 86.
Result probabilities: Grimsby 24% | Draw 23% | Bradford 52%. Fair-value odds: Grimsby 4.14 | Draw 4.26 | Bradford 1.91. Bradford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.28 / 1.96) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bradford at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bradford if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Grimsby's last 10 home games and Bradford's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Grimsby 80% (last 10 home games) | Bradford 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grimsby vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, matchday 42 | Venue: Blundell Park • Kick-off: Monday 1 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grimsby 24% | Draw 23% | Bradford 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Grimsby 1.28 / Bradford 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Grimsby attack 0.934 / def 1.560 | Bradford attack 0.983 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Bradford (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Grimsby xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Bradford xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Grimsby vs Bradford FAQs
What time does Grimsby vs Bradford kick off?
Grimsby vs Bradford kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Monday 1 April 2024 at Blundell Park.
What was the final score in Grimsby vs Bradford?
Grimsby 1 - 1 Bradford.
Where is Grimsby vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Blundell Park.
What competition is Grimsby vs Bradford part of?
Grimsby vs Bradford is a League Two fixture (matchday 42) (England).
Who is favourite to win Grimsby vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Grimsby a 24% chance of winning, Bradford a 52% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grimsby vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Grimsby and Bradford will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Grimsby vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Grimsby's attack at 0.93x the league average against Bradford's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bradford's attack (0.98x) against Grimsby's defence (1.56x) — and the away total comes out at 1.96.
These ratings are built from Grimsby's last 85 games and Bradford's last 86 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
24%
4.14
23%
4.26
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Grimsby xG
Total xG
3.25
1.96
Bradford xG
4.14
24%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
14%
7.10
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
3%
29.38
14%
6.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Grimsby vs Bradford Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Grimsby vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Grimsby and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Grimsby and 1.96 for Bradford, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Grimsby vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Grimsby's recent record stands at 24W 28D 33L from 85 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Bradford, meanwhile, have gone 34W 26D 25L across 85 games — 1.51 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Grimsby against 1.51 for Bradford. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Grimsby have managed 14W 13D 15L from their last 42 home games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bradford's away record stands at 18W 9D 15L across their last 42 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Grimsby are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.26 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Bradford in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 85 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grimsby
Current Season
Bradford
Current Season
Grimsby (Home) vs Bradford (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Grimsby
Current Season
Bradford
Current Season
❓ Grimsby vs Bradford Form FAQs
What form are Grimsby and Bradford in coming into this match?
Grimsby have gone 24W 28D 33L in their last 85 games (1.18 PPG), while Bradford have gone 34W 26D 25L in their last 85 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grimsby at home or Bradford away?
Bradford's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grimsby at home: 1.31 PPG; Bradford away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Grimsby or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grimsby have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Bradford in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Grimsby and Bradford, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 4 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grimsby have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bradford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Grimsby
3
Draws
2
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Grimsby vs Bradford H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Grimsby and Bradford?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Grimsby have won 1, Bradford have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Grimsby and Bradford last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 January 2025: Bradford 3-1 Grimsby.
Who has won more matches between Grimsby and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Grimsby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grimsby 62%, Bradford 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Grimsby) and 48% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Grimsby keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bradford in 38%; Bradford in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grimsby home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Grimsby vs Bradford Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Grimsby and Bradford matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Grimsby's recent matches and 40% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Grimsby and Bradford matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Grimsby's recent games and 48% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grimsby and Bradford matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Grimsby's recent matches and 71% of Bradford's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grimsby and Bradford share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Blundell Park, Regular Season - 42, as Grimsby and Bradford drew 1-1 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grimsby 1.28 xG and Bradford 1.96 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bradford landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grimsby attack 0.93 / defence 1.56 against Bradford attack 0.98 / defence 0.96, drawn from 85/86 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grimsby 24% | Draw 23% | Bradford 52%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grimsby 45%, Bradford 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grimsby's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Bradford's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grimsby 1.18 PPG, Bradford 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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