Gillingham 1-4 Grimsby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Grimsby (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Gillingham face Grimsby.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Priestfield Stadium plays host to Gillingham versus Grimsby in League Two, Regular Season - 44. Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Gillingham (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gillingham at Priestfield Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Gillingham are significantly better at Priestfield Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Grimsby's overall League Two record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Grimsby have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Grimsby are 1.30 PPG clear of Gillingham in recent League Two fixtures (1.90 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Gillingham 1W, Grimsby 3W, 3D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Grimsby winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Gillingham half-time and goal-timing data (88 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Grimsby half-time and goal-timing data (88 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gillingham 48% versus Grimsby 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gillingham 35% | Grimsby 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 1.03 xG and Grimsby 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 0.937 / defence 1.377 | Grimsby attack 0.953 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.191. Data: 89 Gillingham games / 88 Grimsby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gillingham 25% | Draw 25% | Grimsby 50%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Grimsby 2.00. Grimsby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Grimsby at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grimsby if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Gillingham 70% | Grimsby 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs Grimsby | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 25% | Draw 25% | Grimsby 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Gillingham 1.03 / Grimsby 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 0.937 / def 1.377 | Grimsby attack 0.953 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Grimsby (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Grimsby xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gillingham vs Grimsby kick off?
Gillingham vs Grimsby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Priestfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Gillingham vs Grimsby?
Gillingham 1 - 4 Grimsby.
Where is Gillingham vs Grimsby being played?
The match is being played at Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs Grimsby part of?
Gillingham vs Grimsby is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs Grimsby?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 25% chance of winning, Grimsby a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Grimsby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Grimsby?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Gillingham and Grimsby will score (BTTS).
Will Gillingham vs Grimsby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Grimsby?
Record (7 meetings): Gillingham 1W | Draws 3 | Grimsby 3W.
What form are Gillingham and Grimsby in?
Gillingham (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Grimsby (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Gillingham's attack at 0.94x the league average against Grimsby's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Grimsby's attack (0.95x) against Gillingham's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 89/88 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grimsby Win
25%
4.00
25%
3.95
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Gillingham xG
Total xG
2.59
1.56
Grimsby xG
4.00
25%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
5%
19.13
18%
5.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Grimsby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Grimsby expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Gillingham and 1.56 for Grimsby, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Grimsby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gillingham come into this having played 88 games, going 25W 30D 33L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Grimsby sit at 1.55 PPG from 88 outings (39W 19D 30L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Gillingham against 1.55 for Grimsby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Gillingham's home form reads 16W 12D 15L across 43 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Grimsby have taken 1.51 points per game from 43 outings (18W 11D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Gillingham are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Grimsby are on 1.41 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 88 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Current Season
Grimsby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gillingham and Grimsby in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 25W 30D 33L in their last 88 games (1.19 PPG), while Grimsby have gone 39W 19D 30L in their last 88 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or Grimsby away?
Grimsby's away record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 1.40 PPG; Grimsby away: 1.51 PPG.
Have Gillingham or Grimsby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gillingham have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Grimsby in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Grimsby go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Grimsby won 1-4 on 18 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gillingham have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Grimsby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Gillingham
3
Draws
4
Grimsby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Grimsby?
From 8 meetings on record, Gillingham have won 1, Grimsby have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gillingham and Grimsby last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Gillingham 1-4 Grimsby.
Who has won more matches between Gillingham and Grimsby?
Grimsby have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Grimsby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gillingham 49%, Grimsby 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Gillingham) and 51% (Grimsby).
On the defensive side: Gillingham keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Grimsby in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / Grimsby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gillingham play Grimsby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Gillingham's recent matches and 51% of Grimsby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gillingham vs Grimsby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Gillingham's recent games and 51% of Grimsby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gillingham and Grimsby tend to score early?
Gillingham have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Grimsby in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Grimsby run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Gillingham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grimsby beat Gillingham 1-4 at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.03 xG and Grimsby 1.56 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Grimsby outscored their 1.56 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.94 / defence 1.38 against Grimsby attack 0.95 / defence 0.88, drawn from 89/88 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gillingham 25% | Draw 25% | Grimsby 50%, with Grimsby to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 35%, Grimsby 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gillingham's trading profile (88 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Grimsby's trading profile (88 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gillingham 1.19 PPG, Grimsby 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grimsby win broke the near-deadlock. Gillingham (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Grimsby (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.