Gillingham 1-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gillingham vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Crawley Town travel to MEMS Priestfield Stadium to take on Gillingham. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 February 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gillingham stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Gillingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gillingham at MEMS Priestfield Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Crawley Town have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gillingham at 0.80 PPG versus Crawley Town's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Gillingham have won 0, Crawley Town 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Gillingham in-play and half-time data (71 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (71 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gillingham 37% versus Crawley Town 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gillingham 27% | Crawley Town 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 1.06 xG and Crawley Town 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 0.640 / defence 1.061 | Crawley Town attack 1.017 / defence 1.325. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.057. Gillingham's attack strength of 0.640 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.325 — this is suppressing Gillingham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Gillingham games / 71 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gillingham 33% | Draw 30% | Crawley Town 37%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Crawley Town 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Crawley Town as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Gillingham 20% | Crawley Town 80%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: MEMS Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 33% | Draw 30% | Crawley Town 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Gillingham 1.06 / Crawley Town 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 0.640 / def 1.061 | Crawley Town attack 1.017 / def 1.325 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Crawley Town xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gillingham vs Crawley Town kick off?
Gillingham vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at MEMS Priestfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Gillingham vs Crawley Town?
Gillingham 1 - 0 Crawley Town.
Where is Gillingham vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at MEMS Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs Crawley Town part of?
Gillingham vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 33% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Gillingham and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Gillingham vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Crawley Town?
Record (1 meetings): Gillingham 0W | Draws 1 | Crawley Town 0W.
What form are Gillingham and Crawley Town in?
Gillingham (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gillingham's attack rating (0.64) and Crawley Town's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Gillingham's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
33%
3.01
30%
3.39
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Gillingham xG
Total xG
2.20
1.14
Crawley Town xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
13%
7.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Gillingham and 1.14 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gillingham come into this having played 71 games, going 12W 24D 35L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Gillingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 1.21 PPG from 71 outings (23W 17D 31L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gillingham on 0.85 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gillingham's home form reads 7W 11D 16L across 34 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 1.00 points per game from 34 outings (8W 10D 16L).
Goals in Recent Form
Gillingham are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.20 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town in 62%.
Last 71 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gillingham and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 12W 24D 35L in their last 71 games (0.85 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 23W 17D 31L in their last 71 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or Crawley Town away?
Crawley Town's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 0.94 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gillingham's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Gillingham
2
Draws
2
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Crawley Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Gillingham have won 2, Crawley Town have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gillingham and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2026, when Crawley Town 2-0 Gillingham.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gillingham 26%, Crawley Town 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Gillingham) and 59% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Gillingham keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Gillingham have failed to score in 56% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gillingham play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of Gillingham's recent matches and 68% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gillingham vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Gillingham's recent games and 59% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gillingham and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Gillingham have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gillingham defy the odds to beat Crawley Town 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gillingham beat Crawley Town 1-0 at MEMS Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.06 xG and Crawley Town 1.14 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Crawley Town landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.64 / defence 1.06 against Crawley Town attack 1.02 / defence 1.32, drawn from 26/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gillingham 33% | Draw 30% | Crawley Town 37%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Gillingham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 27%, Crawley Town 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gillingham's trading profile (71 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not.
Crawley Town's trading profile (71 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gillingham 0.85 PPG, Crawley Town 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gillingham win broke the near-deadlock. Gillingham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.