Crewe 1-0 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crewe at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crewe vs Sutton Utd encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Crewe and Sutton Utd meet at Mornflake Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 38. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 12 March 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Crewe's overall League Two record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Crewe at Mornflake Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sutton Utd (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 League Two outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sutton Utd's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Crewe's 1.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Sutton Utd's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Crewe, 0 for Sutton Utd and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Crewe half-time and goal-timing data (82 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Sutton Utd half-time and goal-timing data (82 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 52% versus Sutton Utd 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 50% | Sutton Utd 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.71 xG and Sutton Utd 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 0.993 / defence 1.057 | Sutton Utd attack 0.807 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.288. Data: 82 Crewe games / 83 Sutton Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crewe 51% | Draw 25% | Sutton Utd 24%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Sutton Utd 4.17. Crewe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crewe at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crewe if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Crewe 60% | Sutton Utd 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Sutton Utd | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Mornflake Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 51% | Draw 25% | Sutton Utd 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Crewe 1.71 / Sutton Utd 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 0.993 / def 1.057 | Sutton Utd attack 0.807 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Crewe (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Sutton Utd xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crewe vs Sutton Utd kick off?
Crewe vs Sutton Utd kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 12 March 2024 at Mornflake Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Sutton Utd?
Crewe 1 - 0 Sutton Utd.
Where is Crewe vs Sutton Utd being played?
The match is being played at Mornflake Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Sutton Utd part of?
Crewe vs Sutton Utd is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Sutton Utd?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 51% chance of winning, Sutton Utd a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Sutton Utd?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Crewe and Sutton Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Crewe vs Sutton Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Sutton Utd?
Record (3 meetings): Crewe 1W | Draws 2 | Sutton Utd 0W.
What form are Crewe and Sutton Utd in?
Crewe (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Sutton Utd (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Crewe's attack at 0.99x the league average against Sutton Utd's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sutton Utd's attack (0.81x) against Crewe's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 82/83 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
51%
1.96
25%
4.01
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Crewe xG
Total xG
2.81
1.10
Sutton Utd xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
4%
23.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.3 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Sutton Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Crewe and Sutton Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Crewe and 1.10 for Sutton Utd, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Sutton Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Crewe's recent record stands at 31W 26D 25L from 82 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Sutton Utd, meanwhile, have gone 20W 24D 38L across 82 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Crewe by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sutton Utd heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Crewe have managed 21W 10D 10L from 41 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sutton Utd's away record stands at 6W 12D 23L across 41 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crewe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crewe are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Sutton Utd are on 1.05 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 82 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Current Season
Sutton Utd
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crewe and Sutton Utd in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 31W 26D 25L in their last 82 games (1.45 PPG), while Sutton Utd have gone 20W 24D 38L in their last 82 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Sutton Utd away?
Crewe's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 1.78 PPG; Sutton Utd away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crewe have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sutton Utd — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Crewe
2
Draws
0
Sutton Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Sutton Utd?
From 4 meetings on record, Crewe have won 2, Sutton Utd have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Sutton Utd last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2024, when Crewe 1-0 Sutton Utd.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and Sutton Utd?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 54%, Sutton Utd 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Crewe) and 49% (Sutton Utd).
On the defensive side: Crewe keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sutton Utd in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Sutton Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crewe play Sutton Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Crewe's recent matches and 54% of Sutton Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crewe vs Sutton Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Crewe's recent games and 49% of Sutton Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and Sutton Utd tend to score early?
Crewe have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Sutton Utd in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crewe edge out Sutton Utd 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe beat Sutton Utd 1-0 at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.71 xG and Sutton Utd 1.10 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sutton Utd landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against Sutton Utd attack 0.81 / defence 1.20, drawn from 82/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 51% | Draw 25% | Sutton Utd 24%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 50%, Sutton Utd 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Sutton Utd's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Crewe arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Crewe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.