Crewe 1-0 Salford City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Crewe at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crewe vs Salford City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 42 as Crewe welcome Salford City to Alexandra Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Crewe have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Crewe's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Alexandra Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salford City stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Salford City away from home this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Salford City's 2.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Crewe's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Crewe, 3 for Salford City and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 4.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2025, ended 3–1 with Crewe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Crewe in-play tendencies (87 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Salford City in-play tendencies (87 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 51% versus Salford City 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 41% | Salford City 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.37 xG and Salford City 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 1.100 / defence 1.064 | Salford City attack 1.002 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.164. Data: 87 Crewe games / 87 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crewe 40% | Draw 26% | Salford City 34%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Salford City 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Crewe as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Salford City (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crewe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Crewe 60% | Salford City 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: Alexandra Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 40% | Draw 26% | Salford City 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Crewe 1.37 / Salford City 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 1.100 / def 1.064 | Salford City attack 1.002 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Crewe (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Salford City xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crewe vs Salford City kick off?
Crewe vs Salford City kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Alexandra Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Salford City?
Crewe 1 - 0 Salford City.
Where is Crewe vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at Alexandra Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Salford City part of?
Crewe vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 40% chance of winning, Salford City a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Crewe and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Crewe vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Salford City?
Record (7 meetings): Crewe 2W | Draws 2 | Salford City 3W.
What form are Crewe and Salford City in?
Crewe (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Salford City (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Crewe's attack at 1.10x the league average against Salford City's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Salford City's attack versus Crewe's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 87/87 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
40%
2.51
26%
3.80
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Crewe xG
Total xG
2.61
1.24
Salford City xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
12%
8.69
9%
11.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Crewe and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Crewe and 1.24 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 87 outings, Crewe have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 33W 26D 28L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Salford City's form line: 41W 19D 27L from 87 games, 1.63 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crewe on 1.44 PPG, Salford City on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Crewe have posted 1.63 PPG from 43 outings (20W 10D 13L).
On the road, Salford City have gone 18W 11D 14L from 43 away games — 1.51 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Crewe are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.39 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 87 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Current Season
Salford City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crewe and Salford City in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 33W 26D 28L in their last 87 games (1.44 PPG), while Salford City have gone 41W 19D 27L in their last 87 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Salford City away?
Crewe's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 1.63 PPG; Salford City away: 1.51 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crewe and Salford City runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Crewe have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2022, when Salford City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crewe's record when hosting Salford City specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Crewe
2
Draws
3
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Salford City?
From 8 meetings on record, Crewe have won 3, Salford City have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Crewe 1-0 Salford City.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 49%, Salford City 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Crewe) and 46% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Crewe have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crewe play Salford City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Crewe's recent matches and 58% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crewe vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Crewe's recent games and 46% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and Salford City tend to score early?
Crewe have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Salford City in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crewe edge out Salford City 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe beat Salford City 1-0 at Alexandra Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.37 xG and Salford City 1.24 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Salford City landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.10 / defence 1.06 against Salford City attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 40% | Draw 26% | Salford City 34%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 41%, Salford City 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Salford City's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crewe 1.44 PPG, Salford City 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock. Crewe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.