Crawley Town 1-2 Morecambe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crawley Town at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Morecambe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Morecambe travel to Broadfield Stadium to take on Crawley Town in League Two (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Crawley Town stand at 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Crawley Town have posted 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Morecambe — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Morecambe away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Crawley Town carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Crawley Town's games and 60% of Morecambe's (from Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Morecambe's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Morecambe in-play and half-time data (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 56% versus Morecambe 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 55% | Morecambe 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 2.21 xG and Morecambe 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.059 / defence 1.092 | Morecambe attack 1.068 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.349. Morecambe's defence rating of 1.384 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Crawley Town's projected output up. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 73 games and Morecambe's last 27.
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 52% | Draw 21% | Morecambe 27%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 1.92 | Draw 4.83 | Morecambe 3.68. Crawley Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 71% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% — both xG figures (2.21 / 1.57) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.78 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Morecambe's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 70% (last 10 home games) | Morecambe 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Morecambe | Competition: League Two, matchday 31 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 52% | Draw 21% | Morecambe 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% (Under 27%) | BTTS Yes 71% (No 29%) | xG Crawley Town 2.21 / Morecambe 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.059 / def 1.092 | Morecambe attack 1.068 / def 1.384 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Morecambe xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crawley Town vs Morecambe FAQs
What time does Crawley Town vs Morecambe kick off?
Crawley Town vs Morecambe kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Morecambe?
Crawley Town 1 - 2 Morecambe.
Where is Crawley Town vs Morecambe being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Morecambe part of?
Crawley Town vs Morecambe is a League Two fixture (matchday 31) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Morecambe?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 52% chance of winning, Morecambe a 27% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Morecambe?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Crawley Town and Morecambe will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Crawley Town vs Morecambe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 1.06x the league average against Morecambe's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Morecambe's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Crawley Town's last 73 games and Morecambe's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
52%
1.92
21%
4.83
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
3.78
1.57
Morecambe xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.41
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
11%
9.12
Win to Nil
11%
9.24
3%
33.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crawley Town vs Morecambe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Morecambe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Morecambe expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.57 for Morecambe, a combined total of 3.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Morecambe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 73 outings, Crawley Town have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 23W 16D 34L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Morecambe's form line: 20W 21D 32L from 73 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.16 PPG, Morecambe on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Crawley Town have posted 1.61 PPG from their last 36 home games (17W 7D 12L). That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Crawley Town are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Morecambe have gone 7W 7D 22L from their last 36 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Morecambe are on 1.19 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Morecambe
Blended
Crawley Town (Home) vs Morecambe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crawley Town
Blended
Morecambe
Blended
❓ Crawley Town vs Morecambe Form FAQs
What form are Crawley Town and Morecambe in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 23W 16D 34L in their last 73 games (1.16 PPG), while Morecambe have gone 20W 21D 32L in their last 73 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Morecambe away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.61 PPG; Morecambe away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2024. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 5 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crawley Town
0
Draws
2
Morecambe
Recent Meetings
❓ Crawley Town vs Morecambe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Morecambe?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Crawley Town have won 0, Morecambe have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Morecambe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 March 2024: Morecambe 1-0 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Morecambe?
Morecambe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Morecambe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 61%, Morecambe 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Crawley Town and 67% for Morecambe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Morecambe in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Morecambe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crawley Town vs Morecambe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crawley Town and Morecambe matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Crawley Town's games and 53% of Morecambe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Crawley Town and Morecambe matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Crawley Town's matches and 67% of Morecambe's.
Do Crawley Town and Morecambe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 83% of Morecambe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Morecambe defy the odds to beat Crawley Town 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Morecambe beat Crawley Town 1-2 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 2.21 xG and Morecambe 1.57 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Crawley Town fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.06 / defence 1.09 against Morecambe attack 1.07 / defence 1.38, drawn from 73/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 52% | Draw 21% | Morecambe 27%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual Morecambe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 55%, Morecambe 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Morecambe's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.16 PPG, Morecambe 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Morecambe win broke the near-deadlock. Morecambe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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