Crawley Town 1-1 Grimsby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Grimsby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 26 as Crawley Town welcome Grimsby to Broadfield Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 28 March 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Crawley Town's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Broadfield Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Crawley Town are significantly better at Broadfield Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Grimsby — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Grimsby's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Crawley Town) versus 1.40 (Grimsby). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Crawley Town, 1 for Grimsby and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 0–3 with Grimsby winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Grimsby in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 56% versus Grimsby 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 53% | Grimsby 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.59 xG and Grimsby 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.259 / defence 1.299 | Grimsby attack 0.909 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.054. Crawley Town carry an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — their λ of 1.59 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 83 Crawley Town games / 36 Grimsby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 44% | Draw 27% | Grimsby 29%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Grimsby 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 60% | Grimsby 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Grimsby | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Mar 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 44% | Draw 27% | Grimsby 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Crawley Town 1.59 / Grimsby 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.259 / def 1.299 | Grimsby attack 0.909 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Grimsby xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Grimsby kick off?
Crawley Town vs Grimsby kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 28 March 2023 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Grimsby?
Crawley Town 1 - 1 Grimsby.
Where is Crawley Town vs Grimsby being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Grimsby part of?
Crawley Town vs Grimsby is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Grimsby?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 44% chance of winning, Grimsby a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Grimsby?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Crawley Town and Grimsby will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Grimsby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Grimsby?
Record (1 meetings): Crawley Town 0W | Draws 0 | Grimsby 1W.
What form are Crawley Town and Grimsby in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Grimsby (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Crawley Town's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Grimsby's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Grimsby's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 83/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
44%
2.25
27%
3.75
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.84
1.25
Grimsby xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
6%
17.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Grimsby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Grimsby expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.25 for Grimsby, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Grimsby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crawley Town come into this having played 36 games, going 9W 9D 18L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Grimsby sit at 1.31 PPG from 36 outings (12W 11D 13L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.00 PPG, Grimsby on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Crawley Town's home form reads 8W 3D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Crawley Town are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Grimsby have taken 1.44 points per game from 18 outings (8W 2D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Grimsby are on 1.06 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 36 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Grimsby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Grimsby in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 9W 9D 18L in their last 36 games (1.00 PPG), while Grimsby have gone 12W 11D 13L in their last 36 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Grimsby away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.50 PPG; Grimsby away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Grimsby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Grimsby in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Grimsby have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Grimsby won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Grimsby specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Crawley Town
1
Draws
3
Grimsby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Grimsby?
From 6 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 2, Grimsby have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Grimsby last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Crawley Town 0-2 Grimsby.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Grimsby?
Grimsby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Grimsby see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 61%, Grimsby 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Crawley Town) and 44% (Grimsby).
On the defensive side: Grimsby in 33%; Grimsby in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Grimsby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Grimsby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 39% of Grimsby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Grimsby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Crawley Town's recent games and 44% of Grimsby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Grimsby tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Grimsby in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town and Grimsby share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town and Grimsby finished level at 1-1 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.59 xG and Grimsby 1.25 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.26 / defence 1.30 against Grimsby attack 0.91 / defence 1.11, drawn from 83/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 44% | Draw 27% | Grimsby 29%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 53%, Grimsby 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Grimsby's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.00 PPG, Grimsby 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.