Crawley Town 0-2 Doncaster – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Crawley Town face Doncaster.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Broadfield Stadium plays host to Crawley Town versus Doncaster in League Two (matchday 41). Kick-off: Friday 29 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Crawley Town have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Crawley Town's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Doncaster (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Doncaster's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Crawley Town, 2.10 for Doncaster — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Doncaster's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Crawley Town's games and 80% of Doncaster's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Crawley Town, 2 for Doncaster and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2023, ended Crawley Town 0–2 Doncaster — a Doncaster win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 84 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Doncaster goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 84 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 56% versus Doncaster 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 52% | Doncaster 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.57 xG and Doncaster 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.975 / defence 0.950 | Doncaster attack 1.024 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.291. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 84 games and Doncaster's last 84.
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 44% | Draw 26% | Doncaster 30%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.27 | Draw 3.84 | Doncaster 3.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Doncaster's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 80% (last 10 home games) | Doncaster 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Doncaster | Competition: League Two, matchday 41 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 44% | Draw 26% | Doncaster 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Crawley Town 1.57 / Doncaster 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.975 / def 0.950 | Doncaster attack 1.024 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Doncaster xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crawley Town vs Doncaster FAQs
What time does Crawley Town vs Doncaster kick off?
Crawley Town vs Doncaster kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Friday 29 March 2024 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Doncaster?
Crawley Town 0 - 2 Doncaster.
Where is Crawley Town vs Doncaster being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Doncaster part of?
Crawley Town vs Doncaster is a League Two fixture (matchday 41) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Doncaster?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 44% chance of winning, Doncaster a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Doncaster?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Crawley Town and Doncaster will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Crawley Town vs Doncaster have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 0.97x the league average against Doncaster's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Doncaster's attack (1.02x) against Crawley Town's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from Crawley Town's last 84 games and Doncaster's last 84 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
44%
2.27
26%
3.84
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.83
1.26
Doncaster xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
13%
7.97
6%
16.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.7 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crawley Town vs Doncaster Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Doncaster?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Doncaster expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.26 for Doncaster, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Doncaster?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 29W 18D 37L from 84 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Doncaster, meanwhile, have gone 30W 14D 40L across 84 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.24 for Doncaster. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 19W 9D 14L from their last 42 home games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Doncaster's away record stands at 9W 11D 22L across their last 42 away games, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Crawley Town are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Doncaster are on 1.15 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 84 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Doncaster
Current Season
Crawley Town (Home) vs Doncaster (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crawley Town
Current Season
Doncaster
Current Season
❓ Crawley Town vs Doncaster Form FAQs
What form are Crawley Town and Doncaster in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 29W 18D 37L in their last 84 games (1.25 PPG), while Doncaster have gone 30W 14D 40L in their last 84 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Doncaster away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.57 PPG; Doncaster away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Crawley Town and Doncaster, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 29 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Doncaster have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Doncaster won Doncaster 4-1 Crawley Town on 24 Sep 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Doncaster — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Crawley Town
1
Draws
3
Doncaster
Recent Meetings
❓ Crawley Town vs Doncaster H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Doncaster?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Crawley Town have won 0, Doncaster have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Doncaster last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 March 2024: Crawley Town 0-2 Doncaster.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Doncaster?
Doncaster have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Doncaster are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 62%, Doncaster 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Crawley Town) and 57% (Doncaster). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Doncaster in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Doncaster away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crawley Town vs Doncaster Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crawley Town and Doncaster matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Crawley Town's games and 57% of Doncaster's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Crawley Town and Doncaster matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Crawley Town's matches and 57% of Doncaster's.
Do Crawley Town and Doncaster matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 71% of Doncaster's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Doncaster cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Doncaster beat Crawley Town 0-2 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.57 xG and Doncaster 1.26 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Crawley Town fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.97 / defence 0.95 against Doncaster attack 1.02 / defence 1.13, drawn from 84/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 44% | Draw 26% | Doncaster 30%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Doncaster win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 52%, Doncaster 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Doncaster's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.25 PPG, Doncaster 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Doncaster win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Doncaster (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.02 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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