Crawley Town 1-1 Chesterfield – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chesterfield at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Chesterfield fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 34 as Crawley Town welcome Chesterfield to The Broadfield Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at The Broadfield Stadium, Crawley Town have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Chesterfield — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Chesterfield's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Chesterfield are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Crawley Town register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Chesterfield in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Crawley Town, 0 for Chesterfield and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Crawley Town trading profile (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Chesterfield trading profile (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 51% versus Chesterfield 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 54% | Chesterfield 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.25 xG and Chesterfield 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.895 / defence 1.246 | Chesterfield attack 1.155 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.174. Data: 33 Crawley Town games / 78 Chesterfield games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 28% | Draw 24% | Chesterfield 48%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | Chesterfield 2.08. Chesterfield hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chesterfield as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chesterfield offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 60% | Chesterfield 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Chesterfield | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: The Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 28% | Draw 24% | Chesterfield 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Crawley Town 1.25 / Chesterfield 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.895 / def 1.246 | Chesterfield attack 1.155 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Chesterfield (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Chesterfield xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Chesterfield kick off?
Crawley Town vs Chesterfield kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at The Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Chesterfield?
Crawley Town 1 - 1 Chesterfield.
Where is Crawley Town vs Chesterfield being played?
The match is being played at The Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Chesterfield part of?
Crawley Town vs Chesterfield is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Chesterfield?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 28% chance of winning, Chesterfield a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Chesterfield the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Chesterfield?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Crawley Town and Chesterfield will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Chesterfield have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Chesterfield?
Record (1 meetings): Crawley Town 0W | Draws 1 | Chesterfield 0W.
What form are Crawley Town and Chesterfield in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Chesterfield (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 0.90x the league average against Chesterfield's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chesterfield's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chesterfield Win
28%
3.51
24%
4.18
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.94
1.69
Chesterfield xG
3.51
28%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
18%
5.42
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
5%
19.04
14%
7.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Chesterfield?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Chesterfield expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.69 for Chesterfield, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Chesterfield?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 18W 19D 42L from 79 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Chesterfield, meanwhile, have gone 32W 25D 22L across 79 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chesterfield by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crawley Town heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 11W 11D 17L from 39 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chesterfield's away record stands at 14W 9D 16L across 39 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Chesterfield are on 1.57 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 79 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Chesterfield
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Chesterfield in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 18W 19D 42L in their last 79 games (0.92 PPG), while Chesterfield have gone 32W 25D 22L in their last 79 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Chesterfield away?
Chesterfield's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.13 PPG; Chesterfield away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crawley Town
2
Draws
0
Chesterfield
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Chesterfield?
From 2 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 0, Chesterfield have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Chesterfield last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Crawley Town 1-1 Chesterfield.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Chesterfield are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 59%, Chesterfield 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Crawley Town) and 51% (Chesterfield).
On the defensive side: Chesterfield in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Chesterfield away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Chesterfield?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 49% of Chesterfield's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Chesterfield usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Crawley Town's recent games and 51% of Chesterfield's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Chesterfield tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Chesterfield in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town and Chesterfield share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town and Chesterfield finished level at 1-1 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.25 xG and Chesterfield 1.69 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.90 / defence 1.25 against Chesterfield attack 1.16 / defence 1.12, drawn from 33/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 28% | Draw 24% | Chesterfield 48%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 54%, Chesterfield 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Chesterfield's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chesterfield arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.