Crawley Town 2-1 Carlisle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Crawley Town take on Carlisle.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 7 as Crawley Town welcome Carlisle to The People's Pension Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Crawley Town — All Games: 1W 1D 3L from 5 League Two outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all League Two games this season, Carlisle have recorded 2W 3D 1L from 6 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.83 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Carlisle have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Carlisle's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Carlisle — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Crawley Town trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Carlisle trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Crawley Town 40% and Carlisle 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 40% | Carlisle 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 0.99 xG and Carlisle 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.925 / defence 1.016 | Carlisle attack 0.857 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 0.923 / away 1.094. Data: 5 Crawley Town games / 6 Carlisle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 32% | Draw 38% | Carlisle 30%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.12 | Draw 2.63 | Carlisle 3.33. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 40% | Carlisle 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Carlisle | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: The People's Pension Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 32% | Draw 38% | Carlisle 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 42% | xG Crawley Town 0.99 / Carlisle 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.925 / def 1.016 | Carlisle attack 0.857 / def 1.162 | league avg home 0.923 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Carlisle xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Carlisle kick off?
Crawley Town vs Carlisle kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at The People's Pension Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Carlisle?
Crawley Town 2 - 1 Carlisle.
Where is Crawley Town vs Carlisle being played?
The match is being played at The People's Pension Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Carlisle part of?
Crawley Town vs Carlisle is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Carlisle?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 32% chance of winning, Carlisle a 30% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Carlisle?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Crawley Town and Carlisle will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Carlisle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Carlisle?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crawley Town and Carlisle in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Carlisle (all comps): 2W-3D-1L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.83 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Crawley Town's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Carlisle's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Carlisle's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.12
38%
2.63
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
1.94
0.95
Carlisle xG
3.12
32%
Home win
2.63
38%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
12%
8.08
11%
9.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 13.6 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Carlisle?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Carlisle expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Crawley Town and 0.95 for Carlisle, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Carlisle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 1W 1D 3L from 5 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Carlisle, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 1L across 5 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Carlisle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Carlisle by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crawley Town heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Carlisle are on 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Carlisle in 80%.
Last 5 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Early Season
Carlisle
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Carlisle in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Carlisle have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crawley Town and Carlisle runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Carlisle have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when Carlisle won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Carlisle specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Crawley Town
1
Draws
2
Carlisle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Carlisle?
From 4 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 1, Carlisle have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Carlisle last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Crawley Town 2-5 Carlisle.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Carlisle?
Carlisle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 40%, Carlisle 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Crawley Town) and 60% (Carlisle).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Carlisle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Carlisle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Crawley Town's games and 80% of Carlisle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Carlisle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Crawley Town's recent games and 60% of Carlisle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Carlisle tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Carlisle in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crawley Town edge out Carlisle 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Carlisle 2-1 at The People's Pension Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 0.99 xG and Carlisle 0.95 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.93 / defence 1.02 against Carlisle attack 0.86 / defence 1.16, drawn from 5/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 32% | Draw 38% | Carlisle 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Crawley Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 40%, Carlisle 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Carlisle's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Carlisle arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Crawley Town winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Crawley Town scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Carlisle shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.