Crawley Town 1-0 Barrow – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Barrow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 18 as Crawley Town welcome Barrow to Broadfield Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Crawley Town — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town at Broadfield Stadium this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all League Two games this season, Barrow have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Barrow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Barrow away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Crawley Town at 1.20 PPG versus Barrow's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Crawley Town have won 2, Barrow 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Crawley Town winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Barrow in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 63% versus Barrow 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 56% | Barrow 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.59 xG and Barrow 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.213 / defence 1.284 | Barrow attack 0.969 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.041. Data: 62 Crawley Town games / 63 Barrow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 44% | Draw 25% | Barrow 31%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Barrow 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 50% | Barrow 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Barrow | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 44% | Draw 25% | Barrow 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Crawley Town 1.59 / Barrow 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.213 / def 1.284 | Barrow attack 0.969 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Barrow xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Barrow kick off?
Crawley Town vs Barrow kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Barrow?
Crawley Town 1 - 0 Barrow.
Where is Crawley Town vs Barrow being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Barrow part of?
Crawley Town vs Barrow is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Barrow?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 44% chance of winning, Barrow a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Barrow?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Crawley Town and Barrow will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Barrow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Barrow?
Record (2 meetings): Crawley Town 2W | Draws 0 | Barrow 0W.
What form are Crawley Town and Barrow in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Barrow (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 1.21x the league average against Barrow's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Barrow's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
44%
2.26
25%
4.00
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.89
1.29
Barrow xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
6%
15.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Barrow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Barrow expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.29 for Barrow, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Barrow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 20W 15D 27L from 62 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Barrow, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 27L across 62 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Barrow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.21 PPG, Barrow on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 12W 6D 12L from 30 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Barrow's away record stands at 8W 6D 16L across 30 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Barrow are on 1.10 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Barrow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Barrow in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 20W 15D 27L in their last 62 games (1.21 PPG), while Barrow have gone 20W 15D 27L in their last 62 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Barrow away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.40 PPG; Barrow away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Barrow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Barrow in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crawley Town and Barrow runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2023, when Barrow won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Barrow specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Crawley Town
1
Draws
3
Barrow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Barrow?
From 8 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 4, Barrow have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Barrow last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Barrow 0-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Barrow?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Barrow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 63%, Barrow 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Crawley Town) and 40% (Barrow).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 27% of games; Barrow in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Barrow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Barrow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 43% of Barrow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Barrow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Crawley Town's recent games and 40% of Barrow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Barrow tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Barrow in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crawley Town edge out Barrow 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Barrow 1-0 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.59 xG and Barrow 1.29 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Barrow landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.21 / defence 1.28 against Barrow attack 0.97 / defence 1.06, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 44% | Draw 25% | Barrow 31%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 56%, Barrow 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Barrow's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.21 PPG, Barrow 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Barrow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.