Chesterfield 1-1 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Chesterfield at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chesterfield face Port Vale.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
SMH Group Stadium plays host to Chesterfield versus Port Vale in League Two (matchday 28). Kick-off: Saturday 25 January 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Chesterfield have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Chesterfield's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Port Vale (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Port Vale away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Chesterfield, 1.10 for Port Vale — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Chesterfield, 1 for Port Vale and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended Chesterfield 0–1 Port Vale — a Port Vale win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Chesterfield goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Port Vale goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chesterfield 52% versus Port Vale 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chesterfield 56% | Port Vale 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Chesterfield surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Port Vale have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chesterfield 1.11 xG and Port Vale 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chesterfield attack 0.883 / defence 1.043 | Port Vale attack 0.804 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.166. Data: built from Chesterfield's last 25 games and Port Vale's last 26.
Result probabilities: Chesterfield 37% | Draw 33% | Port Vale 30%. Fair-value odds: Chesterfield 2.69 | Draw 3.07 | Port Vale 3.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chesterfield as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chesterfield if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Chesterfield's last 10 home games and Port Vale's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chesterfield 60% (last 10 home games) | Port Vale 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chesterfield vs Port Vale | Competition: League Two, matchday 28 | Venue: SMH Group Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 January 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chesterfield 37% | Draw 33% | Port Vale 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Chesterfield 1.11 / Port Vale 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Chesterfield attack 0.883 / def 1.043 | Port Vale attack 0.804 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Chesterfield (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Chesterfield xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Port Vale xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chesterfield vs Port Vale FAQs
What time does Chesterfield vs Port Vale kick off?
Chesterfield vs Port Vale kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 25 January 2025 at SMH Group Stadium.
What was the final score in Chesterfield vs Port Vale?
Chesterfield 1 - 1 Port Vale.
Where is Chesterfield vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at SMH Group Stadium.
What competition is Chesterfield vs Port Vale part of?
Chesterfield vs Port Vale is a League Two fixture (matchday 28) (England).
Who is favourite to win Chesterfield vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Chesterfield a 37% chance of winning, Port Vale a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Chesterfield the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chesterfield vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Chesterfield and Port Vale will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Chesterfield vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chesterfield's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Port Vale's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Port Vale's attack (0.80x) against Chesterfield's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from Chesterfield's last 25 games and Port Vale's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chesterfield Win
37%
2.69
33%
3.07
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Chesterfield xG
Total xG
2.09
0.98
Port Vale xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
14%
7.14
10%
10.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 12.1 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chesterfield vs Port Vale Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chesterfield vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Chesterfield and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Chesterfield and 0.98 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Chesterfield vs Port Vale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 25 outings, Chesterfield have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 9W 8D 8L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Port Vale's form line: 11W 8D 6L from 25 games, 1.64 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Chesterfield against 1.64 for Port Vale. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Chesterfield have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 12 home games (4W 6D 2L).
On the road, Port Vale have gone 6W 3D 3L from their last 12 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Chesterfield are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.20 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Port Vale in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chesterfield
Blended
Port Vale
Blended
Chesterfield (Home) vs Port Vale (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chesterfield
Blended
Port Vale
Blended
❓ Chesterfield vs Port Vale Form FAQs
What form are Chesterfield and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Chesterfield have gone 9W 8D 8L in their last 25 games (1.40 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 11W 8D 6L in their last 25 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chesterfield at home or Port Vale away?
Port Vale's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chesterfield at home: 1.50 PPG; Port Vale away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Chesterfield or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chesterfield have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Port Vale in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between Chesterfield and Port Vale, the earliest from September 2024. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Chesterfield
1
Draws
2
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Chesterfield vs Port Vale H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chesterfield and Port Vale?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Chesterfield have won 0, Port Vale have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Chesterfield and Port Vale last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Port Vale 1-0 Chesterfield.
Who has won more matches between Chesterfield and Port Vale?
Port Vale have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chesterfield are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chesterfield 67%, Port Vale 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chesterfield) and 42% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Port Vale in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chesterfield home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chesterfield vs Port Vale Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chesterfield and Port Vale matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Chesterfield's recent matches and 42% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Chesterfield and Port Vale matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chesterfield's recent games and 42% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chesterfield and Port Vale matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Chesterfield's recent matches and 50% of Port Vale's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chesterfield and Port Vale share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Chesterfield and Port Vale drew 1-1 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.11 xG and Port Vale 0.98 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 0.88 / defence 1.04 against Port Vale attack 0.80 / defence 0.96, drawn from 25/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 37% | Draw 33% | Port Vale 30%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 56%, Port Vale 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chesterfield's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Port Vale's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chesterfield 1.40 PPG, Port Vale 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League Two fixtures — matchday 28
All League Two fixtures →
More UK football predictions →