Carlisle 1-1 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carlisle vs Stockport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Promotion Play-offs - Final as Carlisle welcome Stockport County to Wembley Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 May 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carlisle stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Carlisle have posted 4W 3D 3L at Wembley Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Wembley Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League Two games this season, Stockport County have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in League Two this season, Stockport County have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Stockport County are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Carlisle, 1 for Stockport County and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Carlisle in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Stockport County in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 46% versus Stockport County 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carlisle 42% | Stockport County 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 1.07 xG and Stockport County 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 1.104 / defence 0.939 | Stockport County attack 1.147 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.091. Stockport County's defence strength of 0.795 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 92 Carlisle games / 46 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carlisle 32% | Draw 31% | Stockport County 37%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Stockport County 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Carlisle 30% | Stockport County 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, Promotion Play-offs - Final | Venue: Wembley Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 32% | Draw 31% | Stockport County 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Carlisle 1.07 / Stockport County 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 1.104 / def 0.939 | Stockport County attack 1.147 / def 0.795 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Stockport County xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carlisle vs Stockport County kick off?
Carlisle vs Stockport County kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Wembley Stadium.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs Stockport County?
Carlisle 1 - 1 Stockport County.
Where is Carlisle vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Wembley Stadium.
What competition is Carlisle vs Stockport County part of?
Carlisle vs Stockport County is a Promotion Play-offs - Final fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 32% chance of winning, Stockport County a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Carlisle and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Carlisle vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Stockport County?
Record (2 meetings): Carlisle 0W | Draws 1 | Stockport County 1W.
What form are Carlisle and Stockport County in?
Carlisle (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Stockport County (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Carlisle's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Stockport County's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Carlisle's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 92/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
32%
3.14
31%
3.21
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Carlisle xG
Total xG
2.25
1.18
Stockport County xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
10%
10.16
13%
7.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 12.4 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Carlisle and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Carlisle and 1.18 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Carlisle's recent record stands at 21W 16D 11L from 48 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Stockport County, meanwhile, have gone 23W 13D 12L across 48 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carlisle on 1.65 PPG, Stockport County on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Carlisle have managed 12W 8D 4L from 24 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stockport County's away record stands at 11W 4D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Carlisle are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.40 scored and 0.81 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Carlisle have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Stockport County in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carlisle and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 21W 16D 11L in their last 48 games (1.65 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 23W 13D 12L in their last 48 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or Stockport County away?
Carlisle's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 1.83 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Carlisle or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carlisle have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Stockport County in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Carlisle's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Carlisle
2
Draws
1
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Stockport County?
From 3 meetings on record, Carlisle have won 0, Stockport County have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Carlisle and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 28 May 2023, when Carlisle 1-1 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Carlisle and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Stockport County see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carlisle 42%, Stockport County 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Carlisle) and 46% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Carlisle keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Stockport County in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carlisle play Stockport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Carlisle's recent matches and 46% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carlisle vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Carlisle's recent games and 46% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carlisle and Stockport County tend to score early?
Carlisle have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Carlisle and Stockport County share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carlisle and Stockport County finished level at 1-1 at Wembley Stadium, Promotion Play-offs - Final, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 1.07 xG and Stockport County 1.18 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 1.10 / defence 0.94 against Stockport County attack 1.15 / defence 0.80, drawn from 92/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 32% | Draw 31% | Stockport County 37%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 42%, Stockport County 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Stockport County's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carlisle 1.65 PPG, Stockport County 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.