Bradford 1-1 Swindon Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bradford at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bradford vs Swindon Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Swindon Town make the trip to University of Bradford Stadium to face Bradford in League Two, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Tuesday 25 October 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Bradford's overall League Two record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at University of Bradford Stadium, Bradford have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at University of Bradford Stadium.
Swindon Town have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Swindon Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swindon Town's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bradford lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 1–2 with Swindon Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bradford — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Swindon Town — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 55% versus Swindon Town 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 45% | Swindon Town 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.15 xG and Swindon Town 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.989 / defence 0.882 | Swindon Town attack 0.928 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.050. Data: 60 Bradford games / 61 Swindon Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 42% | Draw 30% | Swindon Town 27%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Swindon Town 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bradford if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bradford 40% | Swindon Town 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Swindon Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: University of Bradford Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 42% | Draw 30% | Swindon Town 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Bradford 1.15 / Swindon Town 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 0.989 / def 0.882 | Swindon Town attack 0.928 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.205 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Bradford (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Swindon Town xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs Swindon Town kick off?
Bradford vs Swindon Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 25 October 2022 at University of Bradford Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Swindon Town?
Bradford 1 - 1 Swindon Town.
Where is Bradford vs Swindon Town being played?
The match is being played at University of Bradford Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs Swindon Town part of?
Bradford vs Swindon Town is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Swindon Town?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 42% chance of winning, Swindon Town a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Swindon Town?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Bradford and Swindon Town will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs Swindon Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Swindon Town?
Record (2 meetings): Bradford 1W | Draws 0 | Swindon Town 1W.
What form are Bradford and Swindon Town in?
Bradford (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Swindon Town (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bradford's attack rating (0.99) and Swindon Town's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Swindon Town's attack (0.93x) against Bradford's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 60/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
42%
2.36
30%
3.30
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.01
0.86
Swindon Town xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
9%
11.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 11.5 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Swindon Town?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Bradford and Swindon Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Bradford and 0.86 for Swindon Town, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Swindon Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Bradford have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 21W 20D 19L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Swindon Town's form line: 29W 15D 16L from 60 games, 1.70 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Swindon Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Bradford against 1.70 for Swindon Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bradford have posted 1.33 PPG from 30 outings (9W 13D 8L).
On the road, Swindon Town have gone 14W 7D 9L from 30 away games — 1.63 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Bradford are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Swindon Town are on 1.53 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Swindon Town in 60%.
Last 60 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Blended
Swindon Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and Swindon Town in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 21W 20D 19L in their last 60 games (1.38 PPG), while Swindon Town have gone 29W 15D 16L in their last 60 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Swindon Town away?
Swindon Town's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 1.33 PPG; Swindon Town away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Bradford or Swindon Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Swindon Town in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bradford have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Swindon Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bradford
1
Draws
4
Swindon Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Swindon Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Bradford have won 3, Swindon Town have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Swindon Town last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Swindon Town 5-4 Bradford.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Swindon Town?
Swindon Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 63%, Swindon Town 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Bradford) and 57% (Swindon Town).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Swindon Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play Swindon Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Bradford's games and 57% of Swindon Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bradford vs Swindon Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Bradford's recent games and 57% of Swindon Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Swindon Town tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Swindon Town in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bradford and Swindon Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Bradford and Swindon Town drew 1-1 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.15 xG and Swindon Town 0.86 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.99 / defence 0.88 against Swindon Town attack 0.93 / defence 0.96, drawn from 60/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 42% | Draw 30% | Swindon Town 27%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 45%, Swindon Town 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Swindon Town's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bradford 1.38 PPG, Swindon Town 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.