Barrow 0-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Barrow at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Barrow vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 17 as Barrow welcome Crawley Town to The Dunes Hotel Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Barrow — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Barrow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Barrow have posted 2W 4D 2L at The Dunes Hotel Stadium — 1.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's away record: 2W 0D 5L from 7 road trips in League Two this season (0.86 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Barrow at 1.10 PPG versus Crawley Town's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Barrow in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Barrow 73% and Crawley Town 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Barrow 53% | Crawley Town 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Barrow 1.34 xG and Crawley Town 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Barrow attack 0.932 / defence 1.232 | Crawley Town attack 0.775 / defence 1.375. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.204. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.375 — this is suppressing Barrow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Barrow games / 15 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Barrow 39% | Draw 32% | Crawley Town 30%. Fair-value odds: Barrow 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Crawley Town 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Barrow as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Barrow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Barrow 88% | Crawley Town 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Barrow vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: The Dunes Hotel Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Barrow 39% | Draw 32% | Crawley Town 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Barrow 1.34 / Crawley Town 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Barrow attack 0.932 / def 1.232 | Crawley Town attack 0.775 / def 1.375 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Barrow (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Barrow xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Crawley Town xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Barrow vs Crawley Town kick off?
Barrow vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at The Dunes Hotel Stadium.
What was the final score in Barrow vs Crawley Town?
Barrow 0 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Barrow vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at The Dunes Hotel Stadium.
What competition is Barrow vs Crawley Town part of?
Barrow vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Barrow vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Barrow a 39% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Barrow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Barrow vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Barrow and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Barrow vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Barrow and Crawley Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Barrow and Crawley Town in?
Barrow (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Barrow's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Crawley Town's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Barrow's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Barrow Win
39%
2.59
32%
3.13
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Barrow xG
Total xG
2.49
1.15
Crawley Town xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
12%
8.19
8%
12.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Barrow vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Barrow and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Barrow and 1.15 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Barrow vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 15 outings, Barrow have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 4W 7D 4L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Barrow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town's form line: 5W 2D 8L from 15 games, 1.13 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Barrow on 1.27 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Barrow have posted 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (1W 4D 2L).
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 2W 0D 5L from 7 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Barrow are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.13 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Barrow have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Crawley Town in 60%.
Last 15 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Barrow
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Barrow and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Barrow have gone 4W 7D 4L in their last 15 games (1.27 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 5W 2D 8L in their last 15 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Barrow at home or Crawley Town away?
Barrow's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Barrow at home: 1.00 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2023, when Barrow won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Barrow's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Barrow
1
Draws
4
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Barrow and Crawley Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Barrow have won 3, Crawley Town have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Barrow and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Barrow 0-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Barrow and Crawley Town?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Barrow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Barrow 86%, Crawley Town 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Barrow) and 43% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Barrow home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Barrow play Crawley Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Barrow's games and 43% of Crawley Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Barrow vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Barrow's recent games and 43% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Barrow and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Barrow have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crawley Town defy the odds to beat Barrow 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Barrow 0-1 at The Dunes Hotel Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Barrow 1.34 xG and Crawley Town 1.15 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Barrow fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barrow attack 0.93 / defence 1.23 against Crawley Town attack 0.78 / defence 1.38, drawn from 16/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Barrow 39% | Draw 32% | Crawley Town 30%, with Barrow to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Crawley Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barrow 53%, Crawley Town 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Barrow's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Crawley Town's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Barrow 1.27 PPG, Crawley Town 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Barrow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.