AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AFC Wimbledon and Sutton Utd meet at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AFC Wimbledon have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Wimbledon's home record at The Cherry Red Records Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two appearances (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sutton Utd (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 League Two outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sutton Utd, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sutton Utd's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. AFC Wimbledon's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Sutton Utd's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — AFC Wimbledon register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Sutton Utd in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — AFC Wimbledon lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 3–0 with AFC Wimbledon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
AFC Wimbledon — key trading statistics (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sutton Utd — key trading statistics (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 52% versus Sutton Utd 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 46% | Sutton Utd 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 3.15 xG and Sutton Utd 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.235 / defence 1.037 | Sutton Utd attack 0.797 / defence 1.681. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.293. Sutton Utd bring a strong defensive rating of 1.681 — this is suppressing AFC Wimbledon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 68 AFC Wimbledon games / 68 Sutton Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 78% | Draw 13% | Sutton Utd 9%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 1.28 | Draw 7.69 | Sutton Utd 11.11. The model has a clear lean to AFC Wimbledon (78%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 4.22. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.22 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (3.15 / 1.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Wimbledon are the pick at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 79% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 70% | Sutton Utd 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 78% | Draw 13% | Sutton Utd 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 63% | xG AFC Wimbledon 3.15 / Sutton Utd 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.235 / def 1.037 | Sutton Utd attack 0.797 / def 1.681 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.15
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Sutton Utd xG
63%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd kicked off at 15:00 on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd?
AFC Wimbledon 0 - 1 Sutton Utd.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 78% chance of winning, Sutton Utd a 9% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Sutton Utd will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Sutton Utd?
Record (3 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 1W | Draws 0 | Sutton Utd 2W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Sutton Utd in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Sutton Utd (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
AFC Wimbledon's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Sutton Utd's defensive record (1.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.15. Flip it around — Sutton Utd's attack (0.80x) against AFC Wimbledon's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-1, at 8.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.8%), 3-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
78%
1.29
13%
7.52
9%
11.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
3 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.15
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
4.22
1.07
Sutton Utd xG
1.29
78%
Home win
7.52
13%
Draw
11.22
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
4%
23.41
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Sutton Utd expected to score?
The model projects 3.15 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.07 for Sutton Utd, a combined total of 4.22.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AFC Wimbledon's recent record stands at 20W 23D 25L from 68 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sutton Utd, meanwhile, have gone 18W 18D 32L across 68 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sutton Utd is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for AFC Wimbledon against 1.06 for Sutton Utd. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AFC Wimbledon have managed 11W 10D 12L from 33 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sutton Utd's away record stands at 4W 10D 19L across 33 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Wimbledon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Sutton Utd are on 1.06 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 68 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Sutton Utd
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Sutton Utd in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 20W 23D 25L in their last 68 games (1.22 PPG), while Sutton Utd have gone 18W 18D 32L in their last 68 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Sutton Utd away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.30 PPG; Sutton Utd away: 0.67 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Sutton Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Sutton Utd in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 December 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AFC Wimbledon won 0-3 on 19 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AFC Wimbledon have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sutton Utd — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
AFC Wimbledon
0
Draws
3
Sutton Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Sutton Utd?
From 4 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, Sutton Utd have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Sutton Utd last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2023, when AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Sutton Utd.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Sutton Utd?
Sutton Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 54%, Sutton Utd 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (AFC Wimbledon) and 58% (Sutton Utd).
On the defensive side: Sutton Utd in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Sutton Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Sutton Utd?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of AFC Wimbledon's games and 58% of Sutton Utd's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 58% of Sutton Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Sutton Utd tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sutton Utd in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sutton Utd defy the odds to beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sutton Utd beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 3.15 xG and Sutton Utd 1.07 xG, a combined 4.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AFC Wimbledon fell 3.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 1.24 / defence 1.04 against Sutton Utd attack 0.80 / defence 1.68, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 78% | Draw 13% | Sutton Utd 9%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 78%. Instead the game produced a Sutton Utd win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 93% and missed. Over 3.5 was 61% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 46%, Sutton Utd 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sutton Utd's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.22 PPG, Sutton Utd 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sutton Utd win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.