AFC Wimbledon 1-2 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 7 as AFC Wimbledon welcome Stockport County to The Cherry Red Records Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 September 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, AFC Wimbledon have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. AFC Wimbledon have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AFC Wimbledon at The Cherry Red Records Stadium this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Cherry Red Records Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stockport County stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Stockport County have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stockport County away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (AFC Wimbledon) versus 1.00 (Stockport County). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, Stockport County 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 1–0 with AFC Wimbledon winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
AFC Wimbledon trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Stockport County trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 52% versus Stockport County 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 42% | Stockport County 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.41 xG and Stockport County 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.908 / defence 1.081 | Stockport County attack 1.154 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.174. Data: 52 AFC Wimbledon games / 52 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 36% | Draw 25% | Stockport County 39%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Stockport County 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 70% | Stockport County 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Sep 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 36% | Draw 25% | Stockport County 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.41 / Stockport County 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.908 / def 1.081 | Stockport County attack 1.154 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Stockport County xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 September 2023 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County?
AFC Wimbledon 1 - 2 Stockport County.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 36% chance of winning, Stockport County a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County?
Record (2 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 1W | Draws 0 | Stockport County 1W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Stockport County (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AFC Wimbledon's attack rating (0.91) and Stockport County's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
36%
2.77
25%
3.96
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.87
1.46
Stockport County xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
8%
11.96
9%
10.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.7 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.46 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AFC Wimbledon's recent record stands at 13W 19D 20L from 52 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stockport County, meanwhile, have gone 23W 16D 13L across 52 games — 1.63 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Stockport County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stockport County by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AFC Wimbledon heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AFC Wimbledon have managed 7W 9D 9L from 25 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stockport County's away record stands at 11W 5D 9L across 25 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.38 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Early Season
Stockport County
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 13W 19D 20L in their last 52 games (1.12 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 23W 16D 13L in their last 52 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.20 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.52 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Stockport County in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Stockport County have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Mar 2026, when Stockport County won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AFC Wimbledon's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
AFC Wimbledon
0
Draws
5
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, Stockport County have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2026, when AFC Wimbledon 0-2 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 52%, Stockport County 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (AFC Wimbledon) and 44% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Stockport County in 36%; AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Stockport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 48% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 44% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stockport County edge out AFC Wimbledon 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat AFC Wimbledon 1-2 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.41 xG and Stockport County 1.46 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.91 / defence 1.08 against Stockport County attack 1.15 / defence 1.09, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 36% | Draw 25% | Stockport County 39%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 42%, Stockport County 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Stockport County's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.