AFC Wimbledon 2-2 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AFC Wimbledon host Accrington ST at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 19 November 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
AFC Wimbledon — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Wimbledon's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at The Cherry Red Records Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Cherry Red Records Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — AFC Wimbledon are significantly better at The Cherry Red Records Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Accrington ST stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Accrington ST's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — AFC Wimbledon at 1.60 PPG versus Accrington ST's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for AFC Wimbledon, 3 for Accrington ST and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2024, ended 0–2 with Accrington ST winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AFC Wimbledon trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Accrington ST trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 41% versus Accrington ST 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 39% | Accrington ST 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 2.10 xG and Accrington ST 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.366 / defence 0.706 | Accrington ST attack 1.082 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.249. AFC Wimbledon carry an above-average attack strength of 1.366 — their λ of 2.10 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing AFC Wimbledon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. AFC Wimbledon's defence rating of 0.706 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 AFC Wimbledon games / 61 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 64% | Draw 21% | Accrington ST 16%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Accrington ST 6.25. The model has a clear lean to AFC Wimbledon (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AFC Wimbledon 30% | Accrington ST 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 64% | Draw 21% | Accrington ST 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 54% | xG AFC Wimbledon 2.10 / Accrington ST 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.366 / def 0.706 | Accrington ST attack 1.082 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (64%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Accrington ST xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 19 November 2024 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST?
AFC Wimbledon 2 - 2 Accrington ST.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 64% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Accrington ST?
Record (4 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 1W | Draws 0 | Accrington ST 3W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Accrington ST in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Accrington ST (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AFC Wimbledon's attack at 1.37x the league average against Accrington ST's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
64%
1.57
21%
4.85
16%
6.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
3.06
0.95
Accrington ST xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
6.30
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
12%
8.20
Win to Nil
24%
4.09
2%
51.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 0.95 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AFC Wimbledon's recent record stands at 24W 15D 20L from 59 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Accrington ST, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 26L across 59 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Wimbledon on 1.47 PPG, Accrington ST on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AFC Wimbledon have managed 16W 6D 7L from 29 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Accrington ST's away record stands at 8W 4D 17L across 29 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Wimbledon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.36 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Accrington ST in 63%.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Accrington ST
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 24W 15D 20L in their last 59 games (1.47 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 19W 14D 26L in their last 59 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Accrington ST away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.86 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.97 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Accrington ST been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Accrington ST in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
AFC Wimbledon's record when hosting Accrington ST specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
AFC Wimbledon
2
Draws
3
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Accrington ST?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, Accrington ST have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Accrington ST 0-0 AFC Wimbledon.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Accrington ST?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 45%, Accrington ST 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (AFC Wimbledon) and 72% (Accrington ST). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Accrington ST?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of AFC Wimbledon's games and 72% of Accrington ST's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of AFC Wimbledon's matches and 72% of Accrington ST's.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Accrington ST tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AFC Wimbledon and Accrington ST share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as AFC Wimbledon and Accrington ST drew 2-2 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 2.10 xG and Accrington ST 0.95 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Accrington ST outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 1.37 / defence 0.71 against Accrington ST attack 1.08 / defence 1.23, drawn from 59/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 64% | Draw 21% | Accrington ST 16%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 39%, Accrington ST 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Accrington ST's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.47 PPG, Accrington ST 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.