Accrington ST 1-3 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Accrington ST face Stockport County.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wham Stadium plays host to Accrington ST versus Stockport County in League Two (matchday 10). Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Accrington ST's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Accrington ST's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stockport County (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stockport County's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Accrington ST, 1.50 for Stockport County — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Accrington ST's last 10 home games and Stockport County's last 10 away games) — Accrington ST have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Stockport County in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Accrington ST half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Stockport County half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 44% versus Stockport County 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 51% | Stockport County 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.62 xG and Stockport County 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 1.057 / defence 1.098 | Stockport County attack 1.190 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.266. Data: built from Accrington ST's last 9 games and Stockport County's last 55.
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 37% | Draw 24% | Stockport County 39%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.68 | Draw 4.18 | Stockport County 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.62 / 1.65) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Accrington ST's last 10 home games and Stockport County's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Accrington ST 60% (last 10 home games) | Stockport County 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, matchday 10 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 37% | Draw 24% | Stockport County 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Accrington ST 1.62 / Stockport County 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 1.057 / def 1.098 | Stockport County attack 1.190 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Stockport County xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Accrington ST vs Stockport County FAQs
What time does Accrington ST vs Stockport County kick off?
Accrington ST vs Stockport County kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Stockport County?
Accrington ST 1 - 3 Stockport County.
Where is Accrington ST vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Stockport County part of?
Accrington ST vs Stockport County is a League Two fixture (matchday 10) (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 37% chance of winning, Stockport County a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Accrington ST and Stockport County will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Accrington ST vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Accrington ST's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Stockport County's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Stockport County's attack (1.19x) against Accrington ST's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from Accrington ST's last 9 games and Stockport County's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
37%
2.68
24%
4.18
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
3.27
1.65
Stockport County xG
2.68
37%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
7%
14.01
8%
13.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.1 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Accrington ST vs Stockport County Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.65 for Stockport County, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Accrington ST come into this having played 55 games, going 15W 12D 28L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Stockport County sit at 1.71 PPG from 55 outings (26W 16D 13L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Accrington ST's home form reads 9W 6D 13L across their last 28 home games, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Stockport County have taken 1.57 points per game from their last 28 away games (13W 5D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Accrington ST are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.47 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Blended
Stockport County
Blended
Accrington ST (Home) vs Stockport County (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Accrington ST
Blended
Stockport County
Blended
❓ Accrington ST vs Stockport County Form FAQs
What form are Accrington ST and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 15W 12D 28L in their last 55 games (1.04 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 26W 16D 13L in their last 55 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.18 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Accrington ST or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Accrington ST have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Stockport County in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Accrington ST
0
Draws
2
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Accrington ST vs Stockport County H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Stockport County?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Accrington ST have won 0, Stockport County have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Stockport County last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 April 2024: Stockport County 4-2 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 50%, Stockport County 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Accrington ST) and 50% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Stockport County in 32%; Accrington ST have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Accrington ST vs Stockport County Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Accrington ST and Stockport County matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 54% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Accrington ST and Stockport County matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Accrington ST's recent games and 50% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Stockport County matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 68% of Stockport County's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Accrington ST.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Accrington ST 1-3 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.62 xG and Stockport County 1.65 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Stockport County outscored their 1.65 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 1.06 / defence 1.10 against Stockport County attack 1.19 / defence 1.00, drawn from 9/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 37% | Draw 24% | Stockport County 39%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 51%, Stockport County 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Stockport County's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win. Accrington ST (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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