Accrington ST 0-0 Crewe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crewe at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Accrington ST vs Crewe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Accrington ST host Crewe at Wham Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 43. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Accrington ST have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Wham Stadium, Accrington ST have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Crewe — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Crewe's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Accrington ST at 0.80 PPG versus Crewe's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Accrington ST have won 2, Crewe 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Accrington ST in-play and half-time data (86 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Crewe in-play and half-time data (86 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 49% versus Crewe 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 54% | Crewe 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.03 xG and Crewe 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.795 / defence 1.099 | Crewe attack 1.018 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.286. Accrington ST's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 Accrington ST games / 87 Crewe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 26% | Draw 28% | Crewe 46%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Crewe 2.17. Crewe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crewe at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crewe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 40% | Crewe 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Crewe | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 26% | Draw 28% | Crewe 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Accrington ST 1.03 / Crewe 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.795 / def 1.099 | Crewe attack 1.018 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Crewe (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Crewe xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Crewe kick off?
Accrington ST vs Crewe kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Crewe?
Accrington ST 0 - 0 Crewe.
Where is Accrington ST vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Crewe part of?
Accrington ST vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 26% chance of winning, Crewe a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Accrington ST and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Crewe?
Record (3 meetings): Accrington ST 2W | Draws 1 | Crewe 0W.
What form are Accrington ST and Crewe in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Crewe (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Accrington ST's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Crewe's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Crewe's attack versus Accrington ST's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/87 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
26%
3.82
28%
3.54
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.47
1.44
Crewe xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
6%
16.10
16%
6.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.2 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.44 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 86 outings, Accrington ST have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 25W 19D 42L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Crewe's form line: 31W 28D 27L from 86 games, 1.41 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Accrington ST on 1.09 PPG, Crewe on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Accrington ST have posted 1.24 PPG from 42 outings (15W 7D 20L).
On the road, Crewe have gone 9W 17D 16L from 42 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Accrington ST are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 1.31 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 86 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Current Season
Crewe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Crewe in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 25W 19D 42L in their last 86 games (1.09 PPG), while Crewe have gone 31W 28D 27L in their last 86 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Crewe away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.24 PPG; Crewe away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Accrington ST won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Accrington ST's record when hosting Crewe specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Accrington ST
2
Draws
2
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Crewe?
From 8 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 4, Crewe have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Accrington ST 2-0 Crewe.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Crewe?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 45%, Crewe 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Accrington ST) and 45% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST have failed to score in 33% of games; Crewe in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Crewe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 50% of Crewe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Accrington ST vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Accrington ST's recent games and 45% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Crewe tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Crewe in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Accrington ST's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 43, as Accrington ST and Crewe drew 0-0 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.03 xG and Crewe 1.44 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Accrington ST fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Crewe landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.80 / defence 1.10 against Crewe attack 1.02 / defence 0.90, drawn from 40/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 26% | Draw 28% | Crewe 46%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 54%, Crewe 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (86 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crewe's trading profile (86 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.09 PPG, Crewe 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.