Accrington ST 3-3 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Accrington ST vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crawley Town make the trip to The Wham Stadium to face Accrington ST in League Two, Regular Season - 45. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Accrington ST's overall League Two record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Accrington ST at The Wham Stadium this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Crawley Town (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Accrington ST against 1.00 for Crawley Town. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Accrington ST have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Crawley Town in only 10%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Accrington ST lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Accrington ST — key trading statistics (90 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (90 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 47% versus Crawley Town 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 43% | Crawley Town 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.18 xG and Crawley Town 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.827 / defence 1.029 | Crawley Town attack 0.622 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.200. Data: 90 Accrington ST games / 44 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 46% | Draw 30% | Crawley Town 24%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Crawley Town 4.17. Accrington ST hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Accrington ST are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Accrington ST if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 30% | Crawley Town 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: The Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 46% | Draw 30% | Crawley Town 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Accrington ST 1.18 / Crawley Town 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.827 / def 1.029 | Crawley Town attack 0.622 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Crawley Town xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Crawley Town kick off?
Accrington ST vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at The Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Crawley Town?
Accrington ST 3 - 3 Crawley Town.
Where is Accrington ST vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at The Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Crawley Town part of?
Accrington ST vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 46% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Accrington ST and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Crawley Town?
Record (3 meetings): Accrington ST 0W | Draws 1 | Crawley Town 2W.
What form are Accrington ST and Crawley Town in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Accrington ST's attack rating (0.83) and Crawley Town's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.62x) against Accrington ST's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 90/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
46%
2.19
30%
3.29
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
1.95
0.77
Crawley Town xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
7%
13.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 10.9 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.9 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Accrington ST and 0.77 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Accrington ST come into this having played 90 games, going 26W 24D 40L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 0.93 PPG from 90 outings (20W 24D 46L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Accrington ST against 0.93 for Crawley Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Accrington ST's home form reads 14W 15D 16L across 45 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 0.73 points per game from 45 outings (8W 9D 28L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Accrington ST come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Accrington ST are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.09 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 90 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 26W 24D 40L in their last 90 games (1.13 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 20W 24D 46L in their last 90 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Crawley Town away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.27 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Accrington ST have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Accrington ST
2
Draws
2
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Crawley Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 0, Crawley Town have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Accrington ST 3-3 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Crawley Town?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 47%, Crawley Town 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Accrington ST) and 56% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST have failed to score in 33% of games; Crawley Town in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 40% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Accrington ST vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Accrington ST's recent games and 56% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Accrington ST and Crawley Town share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 45, as Accrington ST and Crawley Town drew 3-3 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.18 xG and Crawley Town 0.77 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Accrington ST beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crawley Town outscored their 0.77 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.83 / defence 1.03 against Crawley Town attack 0.62 / defence 1.14, drawn from 90/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 46% | Draw 30% | Crawley Town 24%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 43%, Crawley Town 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Crawley Town's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.13 PPG, Crawley Town 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Accrington ST (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.